Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
410 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN IS
SVR TSTM POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

PCPN HAS EDGED EAST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG REMAINED OVER THE RGN. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE RGN FROM THE WEST AND BOUNDARY LYR FLOW INCREASES.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT FROM
THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET...MAY TRIGGER A FEW STORMS IN
NE/EC WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE PULLED POPS FOR
LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST. ANY PCPN THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD SHIFT
EAST OF THE RGN BY EVG...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST TONIGHT.
STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...WAA/ISENT LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE RGN AHEAD
OF A SFC TROF. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING RAPIDLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED. SCT TSTMS
SHD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH
THE FA AND THE LFQ OF A JET STREAK PUNCHES INTO CNTRL WI.
ALL OF GRB CWA IS IN THE SLGT RISK AREA...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR. LOW WET BULB ZERO HGTS
IN THE 7-9K FT RANGE SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NITE THRU THURSDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY NITE AND SUNDAY.

THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY
NITE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG AND AROUND 200 HELICITY. GIVEN THE FORCING STILL AROUND
THE AREA WILL RAISE POPS SOME ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE 500 MB VORT AND JET MAX.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES SOAR TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ON
SUNDAY...SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND WINDS DO NOT GET ABOVE 40 KNOTS
UNTIL ABOUT 700 MB. WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH CAPE VALUES WILL RAISE
POPS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOWER SUNDAY NITE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING SO WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT PRECIP CHANCES AS IS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

FROM MONDAY ONWARD THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FROM TIME
TO TIME DURING DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS EACH MODEL RUN. WITH THE
MODEL VARIABILITY THAT FAR OUT AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE WILL OPT TO LEAVE THE PERIODS THAT FAR OUT AS IS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS TO IMPROVE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE RGN AND LOW-LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE. SCT TSTMS ARE PSBL ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN EASTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SCT STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SAT
AFTERNOON...SOME POSSIBLY SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KIECKBUSCH/KURIMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
454 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-141500-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
454 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT
MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-141500-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
454 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

WAVES MAY APPROACH 4 FEET ON LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...SO BOATERS WITH
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD USE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KIECKBUSCH/KURIMSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
445 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW CHILTON            44.04N 88.17W
06/13/2008  M4.30 INCH       CALUMET            WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAINFALL REPORT WAS SINCE 7 AM THURSDAY. CALUMET COUNTY
            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED NUMEROUS STREETS AND BASEMENTS
            FLOODED IN CALUMET COUNTY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY
            EVENING. ST. ANNA FIRE DEPARTMENT NEEDED TO BE SAND
            BAGGED TO AVOID FLOODING. 10 FOOT SECTION OF RAILROAD
            TIES WASHED OUT NEAR COUNTY HWY BB SOUTH OF ST. JOHN.

&&

TSK

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