Wind Advisory 18, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS73 KGLD 052251
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2008


KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ080-081-060000-
/O.CAN.KGLD.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-081006T0000Z/
RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-
LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWOOD...OBERLIN...NORTON...GOODLAND...
COLBY...HOXIE...HILL CITY...SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...QUINTER...
TRIBUNE...LEOTI...TRENTON...MCCOOK
451 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2008 /551 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS ALONG WITH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO (GIVEN RATHER
STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT WITH IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES
AMONGST THE MODELS SO PRECIP MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THEN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND/OR AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF THROUGH THE EVENT
COULD CHANGE A BIT AS WELL. HAVE USED 06Z HPC QPF AS A START WITH
SOME BLENDING FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES.

TEMPERATURES MAY GET TO AROUND 70 TODAY DESPITE THE CLOUDS BEFORE
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 ON MONDAY AS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIP LIMIT ANY WARMING. FOR TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE SOME WARMING
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. COOLEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO EAST). HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT IF THE CURRENT ADVERTISED PRECIP FALLS SOIL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY OFFSET THE OTHERWISE EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS OF A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS AND
OTHERWISE LOW DEWPOINTS TO WARRANT SOME FROST CONCERNS. STILL HAVE
SOME TIME TO WATCH THIS UNFOLD.

WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WINDY SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY WINDS (PRE AND
POST FRONTAL) THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM USING
THE NAM SUGGESTS ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE EASILY MET MONDAY
DESPITE FWC/MET/MAV WINDS BEING SUB ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS AS WELL AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE ADDRESSED THIS
QUITE WELL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

DDT

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FOR KGLD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z
OR SO BEFORE FALLING INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS
STRATUS AND PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN WITH CIGS FALLING INTO THE
IFR/LIFR RANGE FROM 00Z THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. AT KMCK ONSET OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY DELAYED 3-5 HOURS BEFORE FALLING INTO THE
IFR/LIFR RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AS WELL.

DDT

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
330 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
330 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2008 /430 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DDT