Wind Advisory 14, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS73 KGLD 210421
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY...

.SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS TO TIGHTEN. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
A BRIEF REPRIEVE DURING THE NIGHT... STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED.

COZ090>092-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-080-211230-
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0014.080521T1600Z-080522T0200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-
WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...GOODLAND...COLBY...
SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...TRIBUNE...LEOTI...BENKELMAN...TRENTON
1021 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008 /1121 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TO
8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TO
8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY. 

DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...SOUTH WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE SOME AFTER SUNSET.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

$$

FS

000 
WWUS73 KGLD 211100
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA
BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS TO INCREASE. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. AFTER A BRIEF
REPRIEVE DURING THE NIGHT...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS
BEING NEEDED.

COZ090>092-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-080-211800-
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0014.080521T1600Z-080522T0200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-
WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...GOODLAND...COLBY...
SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...TRIBUNE...LEOTI...BENKELMAN...TRENTON
500 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008 /600 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/
THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS
MORNING TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

$$

DDT

000 
WWUS73 KGLD 211532
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
932 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...

.SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS TO INCREASE. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. AFTER A
BRIEF REPRIEVE DURING THE NIGHT...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS BEING NEEDED.

KSZ003-015-029-NEZ081-212345-
/O.EXA.KGLD.WI.Y.0014.080521T1600Z-080522T0200Z/
DECATUR-SHERIDAN-GOVE-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OBERLIN...HOXIE...QUINTER...MCCOOK
1032 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

$$

COZ090>092-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-080-212345-
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0014.080521T1600Z-080522T0200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-
WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...GOODLAND...COLBY...
SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...TRIBUNE...LEOTI...BENKELMAN...TRENTON
932 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008 /1032 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

$$

KJ/MB

000 
WWUS73 KGLD 212201
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
401 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS 
EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY...

.SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE EVEN STRONGER. 

COZ090>092-220615-
/O.NEW.KGLD.HW.W.0004.080522T1200Z-080523T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-080522T0200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS
401 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS STRONG WINDS ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT WHICH COULD LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE...REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN BLOWING DUST...AND LOSS OF VEHICLE CONTROL. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR
GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE.

$$

KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042-220615-
/O.NEW.KGLD.WI.Y.0015.080522T1200Z-080523T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-080522T0200Z/
CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND...COLBY...
SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...TRIBUNE...LEOTI
401 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008 /501 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM MDT
/7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM
MDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SOUTH
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

$$

KSZ002-003-015-029-NEZ079>081-220200-
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-080522T0200Z/
RAWLINS-DECATUR-SHERIDAN-GOVE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWOOD...OBERLIN...HOXIE...QUINTER...
BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK
401 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008 /501 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

$$

BULLER

000 
WWUS73 KGLD 220216
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
816 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008


COZ090>092-221000-
/O.EXP.KGLD.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-080522T0200Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0004.080522T1200Z-080523T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS
816 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT
THURSDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS STRONG WINDS ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT WHICH COULD LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE...REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN BLOWING DUST...AND LOSS OF VEHICLE CONTROL. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR
GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE.

$$

KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042-221000-
/O.EXP.KGLD.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-080522T0200Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0015.080522T1200Z-080523T0000Z/
CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND...COLBY...
SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...TRIBUNE...LEOTI
816 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008 /916 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ TO
6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH POSSIBLE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

$$

KSZ002-003-015-029-NEZ079>081-220330-
/O.EXP.KGLD.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-080522T0200Z/
RAWLINS-DECATUR-SHERIDAN-GOVE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWOOD...OBERLIN...HOXIE...QUINTER...
BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK
816 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008 /916 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 MPH WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
350 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...
350 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
THURSDAY AN ESPECIALLY ACTIVE DAY WITH A NUMBER OF PARAMETERS.
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING. SYSTEM THAT BE
BRINGING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO AREA IS STARTING DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. 100 METER PLUS HEIGHT FALLS HAVE ALREADY WORKED THEIR
WAY ONTO THE COAST. BIG AND COMPLICATED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL HELP SLOW THINGS UP.

MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED FINE ON VERY STRONG JET BEHIND
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS DID FINE AT MID LEVELS EXCEPT THEY
WERE A LITTLE MOIST WITH THE GFS THE WORST AND THE UKMET THE BEST.
THE NAM AND ECMWF LOOK TO BE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELD. WILL PLAN ON USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS
CYCLE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT.
HAVE HAD TROUBLE HEATING UP TO DAY WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WHICH IS BELOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. ALSO AM SEEING WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700 MB AT THIS
TIME. CURRENTLY HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM WITH THE LIFT IN PLACE. THE LIFT THAT IS HERE
NOW WILL BE EXITING OR ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE HOPE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE THE LOW LEVEL JET
KICKING UP SOMETHING. ALSO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN LATE BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. AT THIS TIME...AM PESSIMISTIC ABOUT CHANCES. HOWEVER...
WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL WIND GUST ADVISORY PROGRAM INDICATING
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER THE WEST AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE AT
5 MB. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF. NIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO LOOK TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE
EXPANDED. IN REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...CRITERIA MAY BE MET
IN THE EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE. SINCE AM CONCERNED
THAT DEWPOINTS MAY BE EVEN HIGHER AND IT IS SO CLOSE NOW...CHOSE NOT
TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT. NIGHT SHIFT WILL ALSO HAVE TO
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS.

STRONG JET STILL BEHIND INCOMING SYSTEM WITH JET STREAK IN FRONT OF
IT STILL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AT 00Z. DRY AND WARM MID LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MASS CAPPED WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY FIRING
NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS FROM AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION...AND THE LACK OF THE
WARM UP OF TODAY...WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER
AND THE DRY LINE WILL PROBABLY FURTHER WEST THAN INDICATED. NAM HAS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. THE UKMET/GFS ARE STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA AT 12Z. HOWEVER MID LEVEL DRY AND WARM POCKET PUNCHES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RATHER QUICKLY. ALSO HAVE SOME DIFLUENCE
ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHEAST. STILL NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
AREA AT NIGHT.

THE GFS/UKMET HAVE THE AXIS OF THE JET OVER OUR EASTERN COLORADO
COUNTIES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALTHOUGH AM
STILL CONCERNED SOME ABOUT DRY SLOTTING INITIALLY. DISTINCT DRY
LINE AND GOOD MID LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. ALL AGREE THAT
THE NORTHEAST HALF SHOULD GET HIT HARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE DAY.

BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE THE WIND. MORE THAN ONE PIECE OF GUIDANCE
SAYING THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL EASILY BE MET. HOWEVER...
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET IN THE WESTERN HALF. WITH
THE EXTREMELY STRONG SYSTEM DIGGINING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...HAVE
SEEN THIS SET UP AND OCCURRENCE BEFORE. HOWEVER...SINCE COULD NOT
CONVINCE NEIGHBORS...STILL IN THE FOURTH PERIOD...AND NOT CONFUSE
PEOPLE WITH TOO MANY HIGHLIGHTS...HELD OFF ISSUING ANYTHING. WILL
HIT THIS HARD IN THE FORECAST AND HWO. ANOTHER WIND HIGHLIGHT WILL
NEED TO BE ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW WARM IT WILL GET WITH CLOUD COVER...
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH QUITE A
GRADIENT IN PLACE. THINK DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT BUT THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE REVISITED.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SOME JET LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OR NEAR NORTHWEST HALF...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING...WITH THE
NAM/UKMET THE MOST FAVORABLE. PER REASONING ABOVE...NORTHEAST HALF
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AND RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

AS WESTERN UPPER LOW RETROGRESSES...JET AXIS PULLS BACK TO WELL WEST
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR THIS
DAY. BUT CURRENT CHANCE FOR THE DAY LOOKS WARRANTED. DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION OF THE DRY LINE...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE
NEEDED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO AGREEMENT
WITH THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
SYSTEM ACTUALLY PULLS BACK TO WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AS ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRETTY MUCH LEAVES TH AREA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WOULD THINK IN THIS FLOW THAT WOULD HAVE
A HARD TIME GETTING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
WOULD EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP.

VERY COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN PERIOD THOUGH WITH MODELS DIFFERENT
IN SIGNIFICANT DETAILS. BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF TAKES THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH WITH THE GFS HANING IT UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CAN SEE THAT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT. COULD SEE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. ALL IN ALL...HPC
GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE AND JUST TWEEKED AND BLENDED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION ON THIS ESPECIALLY TEDIOUS FORECAST.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
1132 AM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008

18Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KGLD WHERE 15-20 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER DARK AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

KJ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ079-080.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211330-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1033 AM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008 /1133 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
YUMA TO FLAGLER COLORADO LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT.  SMALL HAIL...BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THE TRI
STATE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.