Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 222000
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

COC125-222045-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-080522T2045Z/
YUMA CO-
200 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT
FOR YUMA COUNTY...

AT 158 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF VERNON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 52 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ECKLEY AROUND 210 PM MDT...
  YUMA AROUND 220 PM MDT...
  CLARKVILLE AROUND 235 PM MDT...

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. 
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING 
FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. 

LAT...LON 4044 10237 3979 10223 3973 10243 4020 10283
      4024 10280 4042 10279 4044 10276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 156DEG 45KT 3997 10245

$$

MCGUIRE

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 222026
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

COC125-222036-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-080522T2045Z/
YUMA CO-
226 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YUMA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 222 AND 228.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS
NO LONGER SEVERE.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 4044 10237 3979 10223 3973 10243 4020 10283
      4024 10280 4042 10279 4044 10276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 156DEG 45KT 4027 10262

$$

MCGUIRE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
123 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
123 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

FORECAST PROBLEMS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
STRONG WINDS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AND BOUTS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE SHOWING THAT THE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
CONTINUES. UPPER LOW NOW HAS NOT ONLY CUT OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN...
BUT HAS ALSO BEGUN TO RETROGRESS. WITH VERY STRONG RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND STRONG CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA RIDGE/LARGE
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LOW...CONTINUE TO EXPECT VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

ON THIS PACKAGE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY NEW HIGHLIGHTS. WILL BE TIED
UP WITH SEVERE WEATHER...AND DO NOT WANT TO BURDEN EVENING CREW
WITH UPDATES. WILL HIT THESE PARAMETERS HARD IN THE GRIDS AND
REGULARLY ISSUED PRODUCTS. WILL LET OVERNIGHT CREW DECIDE ON THE
NEED FOR ANY WIND AND FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...DRY LINE HAS SET UP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN
DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS VERY
MOIST WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THIS BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET SEGMENT TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER ALMOST A DEFINITE. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS THAT FORMED YESTERDAY IN COLORADO
TRAINED OVER THE SAME AREA. EVEN THOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY WOULD EXPECT THE SAME TRAINING AFFECT TODAY WITH A MUCH
MORE MOIST AIR MASS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION HAS MENTIONED OUR
AREA. SO IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR FRIDAY...AND ALL THE WEATHER DEPENDS ON THE
POSITION OF THE DRY LINE. OBVIOUSLY GREATER POPS WILL BE TO NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE. WILL BE CLOSE TO ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME PLACES AGAIN MAY GET CLOSE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING. WEST OF THE DRY LINE MAY NEED A FIRE HIGHLIGHT AS
WELL. WILL BE GOING NEAR TO BELOW GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...POPS WILL BE ORIENTED FOR THE NIGHT
ACCORDING TO THE BOUNDARY POSITION. WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHER OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF AGAIN. ON SATURDAY...WHEREVER THE DRY LINE IS WILL BE
DETERMINER FOR POPS...AND WILL PUT IN THE APPROPRIATEPOPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AGAIN NOT A LOT TIME TO LOOK AT THIS. POPS
CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE DETERMINED BY BOUNDARY POSITION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DID NOT SPEND A LOT OF TIME ON THIS
DUE TO CURRENT AND EXPECTED HAZARDOUS WEATHER. SOME KIND OF
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN...NEAR OR MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. ALSO
PERIODIC PIECES OF THE JET AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKE FOR SOME KIND OF CHANCE THROUGH THE WHOLE
PERIOD. USED HPC GRIDS AND TWEEKED THEM AT MOST.

THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
1130 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AND CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE FIRST
12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE STRATUS BEGINS TO LIFT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE REGION.

KJ
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
123 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

AS STATED ABOVE DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS DUE TO EXPECTED SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...GRIDS AND APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS WILL BE ADJUSTED TO
FIT EXPECTED CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BULLER
&&

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027-041.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ091-092.

&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
137 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231600-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
137 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008 /237 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION AND PEOPLE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A JOES TO SELKIRK LINE. STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER
IF TRAINING OF STORMS OCCURS...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH. AREAS OF BLOWING DIRT MAY ALSO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

EXTREME FIRE WEATHER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A FLAGLER COLORADO TO
RUSSEL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1243 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

KSZ002-014-221915-
RAWLINS-THOMAS-
143 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THOMAS
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 141 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
NEAR COLBY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 60.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 52.