Alert archive / Colorado / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Goodland, KS

May 21, 2008Cheyenne County, Colorado

NWS Goodland, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 21, 2008, 4:42 PM MDT for Cheyenne County, Colorado. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2008, 4:42 PM MDT (22:42 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2008, 5:21 PM MDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Goodland, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Cheyenne County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 848 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -262 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1951 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 89 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 110 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KGLD 212243
SVRGLD
COC017-212345-
/O.NEW.KGLD.SV.W.0041.080521T2242Z-080521T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
442 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

* UNTIL 545 PM MDT

* AT 440 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 21 MILES SOUTH
  OF WILD HORSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 34 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WILD HORSE AND AROYA AROUND 515 PM MDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3859 10293 3859 10317 3861 10320 3867 10318
      3880 10318 3881 10317 3890 10318 3902 10316
      3902 10263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 205DEG 30KT 3854 10310

$$

BURTIS

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 212321
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

COC017-212331-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080521T2345Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
521 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS
NO LONGER SEVERE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3859 10293 3859 10317 3861 10320 3867 10318
      3880 10318 3881 10317 3890 10318 3902 10316
      3902 10263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 205DEG 30KT 3883 10292

$$

BURTIS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 21, 2:28 PM MDT, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 21, 2:28 PM MDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...
228 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND SEVERE WEATHER AT THE TOP OF THE LIST. SATELLITE
CONTINUING TO SHOW THE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS WELL UNDERWAY FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THEREFORE EXPECT SLOW IF
ANY CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WILL LET CURRENT WIND ADVISORY GO UNTIL 02Z.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG DRY LINE AND INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AHEAD OF THIS. FOR THURSDAY
SETUP IS LOOKING THE SAME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. USED THE ECMWF/NAM FOR DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN VERY DRY AND MOIST AIR. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE WILL
BE THE RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS. MODELS GIVING
CONSISTENT NUMBERS HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN COLORADO. WILL PUT
A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AIR. BIG GRADIENT
ON TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. FRIDAY HAS A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY EXCEPT STORMS
MAY GET GOING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. WILL HIT POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ALSO GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER WIND HIGHLIGHT AS
WELL.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS END WITH GREATER COVERAGE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...BEST OF THE MID LEVEL
PARAMETERS DO NOT LINE UP WITH THE LOW LEVELS. DRY LINE IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA IF IT IS CORRECT. PUT IN LOW CHANCE
POPS...WITH GREATEST CHANCE EAST...TO COVER UNCERTAINTY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT. PRETTY MUCH SIDED WITH THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT. HARD TO PIN DOWN THUNDRSTORM CHANCES/LOCATIONS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT OUT OF PHASE
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. BEST MID LEVEL/UPPER LIFT
IS WEST BUT HAVE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH DRY MID LEVELS EAST.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL FOCUS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
BUT PARAMETERS IMPROVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASED LIFT WITH
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS
INTERESTING WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE TOP. BROADBRUSHED CHANCES THIS
PERIOD. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES SUNDAY WITH GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND BELOW GUIDANCE ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE WINDS.

BULLER

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RIDGE FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BY EJECT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE...TIMING THEM VERY DIFFICULT AT THAT TIME RANGE. SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE. HEDGED TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE
UNDER THE RIDGE.

THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.

24
&&

.AVIATION...
1152 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AT KGLD
AND KMCK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS (20-40 KNOTS) AND CIRRUS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. KGLD MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY AFTER 22Z. AFTER 12Z LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN TO THE
KMCK TERMINAL AND BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR...THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.

KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAVE UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE OF COUNTIES. DUNDY AND RAWLINS COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED
SINCE WILL BE COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY SKIES...AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. THE WARNING WILL BE FOR THE SAME TIME AS THE WATCH.
EXPECT VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

JUST A HEADS UP. IT LOOKS LIKE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
WILL BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /12 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
     CDT/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ252>254.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

&&

WFO GOODLAND

Hazardous weather outlook, May 21, 4:15 PM MDT, 27 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
415 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-222045-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
415 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008 /515 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF EXTREME EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
AND SOME TORNADOES.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
OCCUR OUTSIDE THE THUNDERSTORM AREA. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

BULLER

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 21, 3:17 PM MDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
317 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     HAIL             JOES                    39.65N 102.68W
05/21/2008  E0.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

SJOHNSON

Local storm report, May 21, 3:36 PM MDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
336 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             6 SW JOES               39.59N 102.76W
05/21/2008  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SJOHNSON

Local storm report, May 21, 3:55 PM MDT, 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             1 N JOES                39.66N 102.68W
05/21/2008  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

SJOHNSON

Local storm report, May 21, 4:09 PM MDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
409 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             4 NW JOES               39.69N 102.73W
05/21/2008  E1.25 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

SJOHNSON

Local storm report, May 21, 4:24 PM MDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
424 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             1 N ABARR               39.86N 102.72W
05/21/2008  E1.25 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

SJOHNSON

Local storm report, May 21, 4:41 PM MDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
441 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             9 S YUMA                39.99N 102.72W
05/21/2008  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

SJOHNSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Goodland, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 3:30 AM MDT	Fire Weather Watch	GLD	Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Yuma	12 hr
May 21, 3:01 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Kit Carson, Yuma	44 min
May 21, 3:35 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Kit Carson, Yuma	40 min
May 21, 3:49 PM MDT	Red Flag Warning	GLD	Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Yuma	29 hr
May 21, 4:01 PM MDT	High Wind Warning	GLD	Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Yuma	26 hr
May 21, 4:01 PM MDT	Wind Advisory	GLD	Yuma	26 hr
May 21, 4:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Yuma	65 min
May 21, 5:13 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Yuma	37 min
May 21, 5:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Kit Carson, Yuma	19 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Colorado, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.