Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
215 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2008

16Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA AND NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN COLORADO. DESPITE
CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS WELL UNDERWAY
WITH LOWER 50 TDS ALREADY ENTERING SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CWA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/SEVERE WX
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. SHEAR VECTORS STILL RUNNING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM A SOLID LINE ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENT POP
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT WILL FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CONCERN FOR NIGHT WILL BE FOG
POTENTIAL. SURPRISINGLY BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATING FAVORABLE
SOUNDINGS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION IS IF WINDS
WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW ENOUGH
COOLING...BUT PATCHY FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT...TONIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND CANADIAN SEEMS TO BE TRENDING IN THIS SAME DIRECTION.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. NAM APPEARS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AT H85 AS LLJ IMPINGES ON
COLD FRONT. GFS AND CANADIAN APPEAR TO TAKE THE SLOWER ROUTE...AND
BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS. EVEN
USING SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AREA H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS DOES BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 06Z. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...ENOUGH FORCING PRESENT
EVEN IN THE SLOWER MODELS TO UP POPS OVERNIGHT AND IF NAM FORECAST
VERIFIES WILL HAVE TO INCREASES CHANCES/AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...H5 TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...WITH DIV Q FIELDS INDICATING BEST WIDESPREAD
FORCING FOR ASCENT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP CONFIDENCE LOW IN POST FRONTAL PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN AHEAD OF TROUGH
AND STRONG FORCING...PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE. STABILITY
PROFILES STABILIZE QUICKLY AND AS FAST AS THE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING
MOVES THROUGH DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LOT OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA AROUND 00Z...BRINGING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION AND GRADUALLY CLEARING THE SKYS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS LEADING TO A FAIRLY CHILLY START TO THE
DAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEST...COOL AND DRY SURFACE AIR WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE STABLE
DURING PEAK HEATING.

IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND QUITE A BIT
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY MUCH
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH EACH OTHER...WITH ECMWF NOW MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS MID WEEK TROUGH AND GFS NOW MUCH SLOWER. ECMWF
LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN...WHILE GFS MUCH DIFFERENT BUT
HARD TO SAY EITHER ONE HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
CANADIAN...AT LEAST THROUGH 144 HOURS SEEMS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. 00/06Z ENS MEAN ALSO FAVORS THIS SOLUTION WITH THE MOST
CLUSTERING IN THE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOULTION...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SEVERAL MEMBERS IN THE SLOWER GFS CAMP. SEEMS LIKE A BULK OF
MODEL DATA LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL GENERALLY
TRY TO TREND FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.

JRM

&&

.AVIATION...
620 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2008

FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...TO BEGIN WITH...IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR KGLD
WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR KMCK. BY 14Z OR 15Z...EXPECT
FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS TO LIFT OUT TO MVFR AND VFR. BY 19Z...LOW
LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND A LOW-LEVEL
CEILING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP IN MVFR...BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 22Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 04Z OR
05Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION.

BLM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1040 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2008 /1140 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY 9 PM MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM MDT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
130 PM MDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     TORNADO          7 SE TRIBUNE            38.40N 101.66W
05/08/2008                   GREELEY            KS   STORM CHASER

            REPORT RELAYED FROM WICHITA OFFICE.

&&

SJOHNSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 PM MDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     HAIL             16 S BURLINGTON         39.07N 102.27W
05/08/2008  E2.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 PM MDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     HAIL             18 S STRATTON           39.04N 102.60W
05/08/2008  E0.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SJOHNSON