Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
127 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2008

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY.

LINE OF TCU DEVELOPING OVER THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AS SEEN AT
THE KGLD NWS OFFICE. FIRST THUNDERSTORM OF THE DAY IS ABOUT TO CROSS
INTO GREELEY COUNTY, KS WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO. EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTER AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A RICHER
MOISTURE FIELD. DRYLINE SETTING UP OVER THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER
WITH 53 TDS REPORTED AT KGLD WITH HIGHER TDS SOUTH AND EAST. KITR
REPORTING A 37 TD WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WEST.

WINDS OVER KGLD AND EAST TAKING ON A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WHICH COULD ADVECT EVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDINGS OVER KDDC AND KLBF SHOW CAPES OF 2000J/KG WITH CIN VALUES
AROUND 150J/KG. OBVIOUSLY ANY CIN OVER THE AREA HAS ERODED AWAY AS
THESE STORMS HAVE AND ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE. LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC
HAVE CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500J/KG FROM KGLD AND FURTHER EAST...WITH
0-1KM AND 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST THUS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID 60S. BY AFTERNOON SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON.

MOVING INTO THURSDAY AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION
ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO GENERATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AREA WILL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK
OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST
OVER AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

BURTIS

&&

.AVIATION...
551 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2008

FOR THE 00Z TAF...CONVECTION ONGOING AT THE MOMENT IN THE VICINITY
OF KGLD WITH MVFR CIGS. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF KMCK WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR...COULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KMCK AS WELL IF
A -TSRA WERE TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW ENOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING SO MAINTAINED VFR CIGS. BUFKIT
PROFILES HINTING AT THE FORMATION OF FOG/STRATUS AFTER AROUND 09Z.
TRENDED TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TREMENDOUSLY HIGH.

FOLTZ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1100 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2008 /1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT TUE MAY 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             13 SE ST. FRANCIS       39.64N 101.63W
05/06/2008  E1.00 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

&&

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT TUE MAY 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             BIRD CITY               39.75N 101.53W
05/06/2008  M1.25 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR HAIL AT THE BIRD CITY AIRPORT

0544 PM     HAIL             BIRD CITY               39.75N 101.53W
05/06/2008  M1.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL SOUTHEAST SIDE OF BIRD CITY.

&&

FOLTZ

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