Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT MON AUG 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AT PRESENT TIME AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA. FOR THE REMAINING SHORT TERM PERIOD DIURNAL
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES MAKING
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST A BIT
DIFFICULT.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE TROUGH WILL AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AROUND 90...COOLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND 850 TEMPERATURES
START TO COOL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT MOVEMENT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING
REBUILDING. WOULD EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EXACT LOCATION OF HIGHEST QPF
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD/TOWARD THE AREA AS RECENT HEAVY RAINS PLUS THE ADDITIONAL
RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS.

DDT

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 18Z TAFS...PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON AT
GOODLAND AND BURLINGTON BUT EXPECTED CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE AND
SCATTER OUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS TAF
SITES AFTER 00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG STATUS AFTER 06Z AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT...BUT EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS KEEPS CONFIDENCE TO LOW TO
MENTION ANY SIG RESTRICTIONS.

JRM

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121315-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2008 /1145 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEFORE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
MICROBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN SATURATED BY RECENT
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
EVERYDAY DURING THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT MON AUG 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     WRAY                    40.08N 102.23W
08/11/2008  E60 MPH          YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
637 PM MDT MON AUG 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             1 SW VERNON             39.92N 102.33W
08/11/2008  E0.88 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KJAMES

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