Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
910 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2008

.UPDATE...
903 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2008

ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO...WITH AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WAA AREA AHEAD OF
APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM YUMA TO LEOTI...AND ALTHOUGH COOLING
MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...THINK FORCING AHEAD OF THE MCS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME INHIBITION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WITH PRECIP ONGOING IN WAA...THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
H5 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HYDRO CONCERNS ARE HIGH TONIGHT
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER COLORADO ZONES...BUT WITH PRECIP JUST
OUTSIDE THE AREA WILL HANDLE THINGS WITH WARNINGS AND NOT ISSUE A
LATE WATCH.

JRM
&&

.DISCUSSION...

HOT AUGUST DAYS IS NOT WHAT YOU WOULD TITLE THE TRI-STATE REGION
RIGHT NOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE BEEN RIDING OVER THE
PERIPHERY OF THE H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW
CLOUD DECK HAS NOT LIFTED MUCH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. NAM SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON HAS PW VALUES AT 1.70 INCHES-
WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 200% OF NORMAL.

CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
TRACKING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RECENT RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES SUNDAY  AHEAD OF A PACNW LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER BC.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...HOWEVER AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TRANSLATING EAST THE H5 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING
MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. H5 FLOW WILL
BE MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING
MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP ON
AND OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION...
527 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2008

THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
THE TRI STATE REGION...AS COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD
TREND. THERE IS HOWEVER A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WHICH COULD IMPACT KMCK AS EARLY AS 04Z. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE WINDS ARENT AS
FAVORABLE AS LAST NIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO
SATURATION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO HAPPEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

SFJ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1050 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2008 /1150 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO SPREADING EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.