Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THE ONGOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL PERSIST FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.

AT PRESENT A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE WRN
QUAD OF THE CWA MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS
FOR THE CO CNTIES AND FAR WRN SE NE. FOR TOMORROW, I HOISTED A
HEAT ADVIS FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS TODAYS HEAT ADVISORY, BASED
ON PROGGED HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 105F MARK. THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT... MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

TEMPS ON TUE ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE VARIOUS NWP OFFER SCATTERED SOLUTIONS ON
FRONTAL POSITIONING. FOR THE MOMENT, THE FCST CALLS FOR THE FRONT
TO LIE SOUTH OF I-70 COME TUE AFTERNOON, AND THUS, THE WARMEST
TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED ALONG THE DDC/GLD CWA BORDER 90S SOUTH,
UPR 80S NORTH.

FOR THE REST OF THE FSCT PERIOD, A SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS WILL
GLANCE THE REGION, THE DEEPEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH
THUR NIGHT. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL BNDRY/BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
THERE ARE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TSRA EACH AFTERNOON EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE NWP SOLUTIONS DEPICT ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE.

05
&&

.AVIATION...
535 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2008

FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH IN
THE 13G20KT RANGE WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02Z...THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 08Z FOR KGLD...AND BE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 10KT AFTER 10Z FOR KMCK. FEW-SCT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

BLM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
     029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
     016-029.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
638 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-041230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
638 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2008 /738 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TRI STATE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.