Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE HAS GIVEN WAY TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO SAG
SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE AGITATED CU AND OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. 12Z
SOUNDINGS OVER KDDC AND KLBF WERE AN EARLY INDICATOR OF WHAT THE
CURRENT TRENDS AS CAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 2200 TO 4300 J/KG WITH PW
VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...STORM MOTION IS AROUND 6
KTS...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PRESENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FCAST AREA AS IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
PORTION WILL RECEIVE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS...HOWEVER THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...SO THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE FA
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

BY EARLY WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND STRENGTHEN. SOUTH WINDS WILL RESUME OVER THE
AREA...AIDING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE RETURN. BY EARLY
WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AND WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
IN SOME PLACES REACH OVER 100. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
1203 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAFS... A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE TRI
STATE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG WITH THE FRONT
WE WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IF SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK.

KJ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-014>016.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.

CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1020 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181330-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1020 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2008 /1120 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE
MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
326 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     HAIL             3 W TRENTON             40.17N 101.07W
07/17/2008  E0.75 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA SIZE HAIL BUT LARGEST WAS PENNY SIZE.

&&

FOLTZ