Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT IS OFF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE. MORNING SOUNDINGS OVER NORTH PLATTE AND DODGE CITY SHOWS CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2400 J/KG AND DECENT MOISTURE INDICATING THE ATM WAS
ALREADY UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND EXPECT THEM TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY WINDS
TONIGHT AS LLJ PICKS UP OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND TRANSLATES EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SAME WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO...MODELS TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. FCAST SOUNDINGS BY THURSDAY NIGHT SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FROM 1.5-1.75 INCHES WITH 6 HR ACCUM PRECIP OVER 2-3 INCHES.
HAVE STARTED TO UP QPF AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. EXPECT A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWS ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DECENT MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INTRODUCED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

BURTIS
&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FROM
10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

BURTIS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

99/99/99

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
406 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2008

COZ091-152230-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
406 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 401 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BURLINGTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH.
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 181 AND 194.

THEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
443 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2008

COZ091-152345-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
443 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 438 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BURLINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED UNDER THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 186 AND 195.

THEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2008

KSZ001-152330-
CHEYENNE-
605 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 603 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF ST. FRANCIS...OR NEAR ST.
FRANCIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 3 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 13.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 204 AND 215.

THEDE

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