Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY
NEAR THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
AND BY 00Z SUNDAY BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT HAS
ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND PERHAPS GREELEY COUNTY
KS TONIGHT AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKENED AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARENT VERY IMPRESSIVE SUGGESTING
LIMITED SEVERE POSSIBILITY. WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
2/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND BUMP THEM TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY ALONG
AN IDALIA CO TO GOODLAND AND GOVE KS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE
ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES AND INCREASING 700 THETA-E CONVERGENCE
OVERLAY EACH OTHER. WILL ALSO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
18Z THEN SHIFT PRECIP AREA FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH 00Z AS MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...CUTTING OFF ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL. NO PRECIP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS ALL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT IS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...POSSIBLY HAMPERED A BIT BY CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LARGE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...BASICALLY LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
THIS STAGNANT PATTERN IS ALSO REFLECTED IN 850 TEMPERATURES WHICH
SUPPORT MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES ACROSS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP. 0-6KM WINDS ARE VERY NEAR CALM SO LITTLE CHANCE THAT ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP TO OUR WEST MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND STARTS AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL GO WITH AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN A BIT TUESDAY AS IT
APPEARS A DISTURBANCE AT THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH COLORADO INTO TEXAS WHILE ANOTHER MOVES FROM OFF THE WEST
COAST NORTHEAST TOWARD IDAHO. 0-6KM WINDS FROM THE WEST AT UNDER
10 MPH SO ANY FRONT RANGE CONVECTION DOES HAVE A CHANCE AT
REACHING OUR AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

ON WEDNESDAY THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE
MOVING ON SHORE ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 0-6KM WINDS
SUGGEST ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DEVELOP BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP IT CONFINED TO AREAS
WEST OF US. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS 90-95.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DONT SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE UPPER
FLOW WITH TROUGHS BOTH TO OUR WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE SURFACE AND 850 FORECASTS
SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH HPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS WITH READINGS
AROUND 90.

DDT
&&

.AVIATION...
1057 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2008

FOR THE 06Z TAF...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE THINKING FROM THE 00Z
TAF. 00Z RUC13/NAM/SREF CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS AROUND 09Z SATURDAY BASED ON WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
H7-H5 LAYER BUT CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING BUT SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

FOLTZ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

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