Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA. ON SATURDAY THIS UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND REMAINING OVER THE AREA. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL EXPAND THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE DIVIDE TO SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON
FRONTAL TIMING. HAVE GONE WITH MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A COOLING TREND WITH
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT NIGHT AS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHORTLY AFTER 06Z
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA AS SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE MOVE IN SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
TIMEFRAME AS A RESULT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY BY 18Z
TOMORROW MORNING EITHER OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS FARTHER NORTH OR
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED BUT
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IS LESS. BY AFTERNOON MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING JET DYNAMICS ALONG WITH WEAKEST INHIBITION
POINT TO AREAS ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND
PALMER DIVIDE. WITH 0-6KM WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST A FEW OF THESE
TERRAIN DRIVEN STORMS MAY MOVE A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z OR SO AS THEY
MOVE SOUTHEAST. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE WHERE INHIBITION IS LOWEST. BY MIDNIGHT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE DISSIPATED.

FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE/850 THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND HIGH PLAINS WITH UPPER TROUGHS BOTH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST.

NOT PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY AS BEST
INSTABILITY TO OUR WEST AND 0-6KM STORM MOTIONS SHOW A NORTHEAST
COMPONENT SUGGESTING STORMS NOT MOVING INTO THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY
A BIT BETTER CHANCE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS
BORDER. 0-6KM WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH SO AT LEAST STORMS
COULD/SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA IF THEY DONT DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 MONDAY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S BY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS RATHER WARM TOO WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S IF GFS 850 TEMPERATURES
VERIFY. IN FACT...TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER. WONT GO QUITE THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT HOWEVER.

DDT

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING...ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT A TAF SITE. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
GUSTY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

24

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1003 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271430-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1003 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2008 /1103 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THESE STORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 INCLUDING EASTERN COLORADO. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. QUARTER SIZED HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TRI STATE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
ISOLATED WIND AND SMALL HAIL THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DLF/JDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
427 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TORNADO          3 NW YUMA               40.15N 102.76W
06/26/2008                   YUMA               CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            YUMA POLICE REPORTED LANDSPOUT TORNADO APPROXIMATELY 3
            MILES NORTHWEST OF YUMA.

&&

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TORNADO          5 N ECKLEY              40.18N 102.49W
06/26/2008                   YUMA               CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO IN AN
            OPEN FIELD.

&&

FOLTZ