Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...
241 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. FURTHER
NORTH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING MAY
EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE CO/KS STATE LINE AND
WILL KEEP LOW PROBABILITIES WEIGHTED IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN NEGLIGIBLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
INCREASING CINH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY A MINOR CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG REMNANT STATIONARY
FRONT/TROUGH AXIS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON
SUNDAY AS H7 THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LIKELY LIMITING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. MAY KEEP SOME LOW POPS
IN VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER
RIDGE LATE ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURED THIS SCENARIO
WITH LITTLE CHANGES PLANNED.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. RETAINED SOME LOW POPS GIVEN
TIMING UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.  A SUBSIDENT REGIME UNDER H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STATIONARY FRONT
MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

MCGUIRE
&&

.AVIATION...
241 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

18Z TAFS... VFR WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. TRANSIENT MVFR MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH 03-04Z WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1046 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211500-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1046 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008 /1146 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A MCCOOK TO GOVE LINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
TODAY...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A MCCOOK
TO GOVE LINE.

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
544 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             4 E VERNON              39.93N 102.24W
06/20/2008  E2.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MLAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             3 E VERNON              39.93N 102.26W
06/20/2008  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

MLAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             3 E VERNON              39.93N 102.26W
06/20/2008  E1.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

MLAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
608 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             10 E VERNON             39.93N 102.13W
06/20/2008  E0.88 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

MLAMMERS

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