Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ONLY
STORM IN THE FORECAST AREA IS ON THE KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COLORADO LINE...OTHERWISE ACTIVITY IS TIED TO THE CHEYENNE RIDGE
ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AND SOUTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS/SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AFTER THE 02Z WATCH EXPIRATION FEEL
THAT THERE WILL BE LARGE LULL IN ACTIVITY AS AREA OF 700-500
MOISTURE AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS MAY SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHICH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW IN
THE FIELDS LISTED ABOVE. WILL FINE TUNE THAT LATER TONIGHT AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC AND ALL
OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS/DP LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ADJUST SKY GRIDS DOWN AS ONLY SOME CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

DDT

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...HAVE GONE WITH A VRB06KT WIND PRETTY MUCH
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE AS THERE IS NO CLEAR CUT DIRECTION
INDICATED. SKY COVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL VARIETY...MAINLY CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF. BY 18Z FRIDAY
CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN BUT CLOSER TO THE CO/KS BORDER SO HAVE
LEFT CB OUT OF THE TAF AT KMCK AND INSERTED IT AT KGLD. BOUNDARY
LAYER RH FROM THE GFS/NAM NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG SO HAVE LEFT IT
OUT.

DDT

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-201215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1022 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2008 /1122 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FLOODING MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE OVER AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER PREVIOUS DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BURTIS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
503 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

COZ091-192330-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
503 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 458 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF
STRATTON TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER...AND MOVING EAST AT 26 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             10 S VONA               39.16N 102.74W
06/19/2008  E0.88 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

MLAMMERS

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