Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
ROCKIES AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT EAST MOVEMENT BY SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.

FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE NEAR SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL BE COMING DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. A BULLSEYE OF UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITIES IS INDICATED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. POPS
WILL RANGE FROM CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY IN THE EAST. THERE IS A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568 IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z FOR THE WESTERN
2/3 OF THE FORECAST AND A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER SO
WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONES. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. LATER
TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS TONIGHT SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS. ACTIVITY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING SO THAT AFTER 06Z CHANCE POPS WILL
EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTH.

DYNAMICS FOR FRIDAY ARE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS. FORCING IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COLORADO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS AFTER 06Z SAT WITH NIL POPS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...DYNAMICS ARE SKETCHY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STORMS MOVING INTO KANSAS/NEBRASKA ZONES
IN THE EVENING. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FOLLOW AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

850MB TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY AND THEN WARM TO NEAR
30 BY SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE WITH PRECIPITATION
IN MIND. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY
TO 90 ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S.

IN THE EXTENDED...A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE ON
SUNDAY BUT H7 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
GO WITH NIL POPS. VERY WARM H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE PERIOD DRY.

850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UP FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S. CONSEQUENTLY MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
1135 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAF...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER BOTH TERMINALS
CURRENTLY WITH CU FIELD STARTING TO DEEPEN OVER THE FRONT RANGE
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
WERE NOTED ON RADAR OVER EASTERN COLORADO BUT TRENDS WOULD
INDICATE A GRADUAL DISSIPATION BEFORE THEY REACH KGLD. AM
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION BY
LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK BY AROUND
22Z...PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG AT KGLD BY AROUND 08Z. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z/18 RUC13 AND HAVE THUS INSERTED MVFR
CIGS/VIS. APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS SETUP WHICH
YIELDED VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD FOR A FEW HOURS BUT NOT READY TO
GO THAT EXTREME THIS FAR OUT. PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST AS NEEDED.
FOG SIGNAL MUCH WEAKER FOR KMCK BUT LOW STRATUS APPEARS LIKELY AS
PRECIP DEPARTS AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETS UP. BOTH
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND 15Z
THURSDAY.

FOLTZ

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1031 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2008 /1131 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STAGNATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS EACH
DAY. IF THIS OCCURS...FLOODING MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
402 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     TORNADO          1 NW MCCOOK             40.21N 100.63W
06/18/2008                   RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

&&

DTHEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
403 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             7 NW CULBERTSON         40.30N 100.93W
06/18/2008  E0.88 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL-SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

&&

MLAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             10 ENE HAIGLER          40.07N 101.76W
06/18/2008  E0.50 INCH       DUNDY              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND 1 INCH DEEP.

&&

MLAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             10 ENE HAIGLER          40.07N 101.76W
06/18/2008  E0.75 INCH       DUNDY              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND 1 INCH DEEP.

&&

MLAMMERS

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