Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
229 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

PERSISTENT LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES WITH DAILY SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING OVER THE LEE SIDE...SOME STRONGER...SOME WEAKER. FORECAST
CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEK.

THE GLD CWA IS OUTLINED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EVERY DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE WITH
STRONG SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES AND INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...BUILDING SLIGHTLY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. GFS SEEMS TO
BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PUSHING OUT THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WHEN COMPARED WITH THE UKMET...NAM...AND ECMWF. SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TURN FROM THE NORTH AS THE PROGGED PRECIP/MCS PASSES. WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH FROM LATE FRIDAY ON. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 90 DEGREES...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AS WITH THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR DAYS 6 THROUGH 7...MODELS SHOW A FLOW PATTERN ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO
THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE BC REGION/PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL US. THE GFS AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE
ON SATURDAY...BUT SHIFTS IT EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS
IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL US
THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE DETAILS WARRANT A 50/50 BLEND BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HPC INTRODUCED ISOLATED AREAS
OF SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS.

BLM
&&

.AVIATION...
705 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH AND MAY IMPACT KMCK(POSSIBLY KGLD)AFTER 06-08Z.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TRANSIENT IFR IN LOW
CIGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 20Z ON WEDNESDAY.

26
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1025 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008 /1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...THESE STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. IF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS...FLOODING WOULD ALSO BECOME
A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS EVENING.

FOLTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

COZ092-172100-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-
238 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 235 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR KARVAL...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF WILD HORSE
POINT...AND MOVING EAST AT 16 MPH.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

COZ091-092-172130-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-
303 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 258 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOYERO TO 13 MILES
EAST OF KARVAL...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.