Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
219 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2008

BUSY FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. EASTERN COLORADO AND THE ADJACENT
KANSAS COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING AS
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE ARE WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH RHS DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. FORECAST PARAMETERS INDICATE THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH HIGH WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

LATER TONIGHT LLJ STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY...HOWEVER AM NOT SURE
THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.  SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AS OF YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH WINDS
TONIGHT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. AFTER 12Z WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA...MAKING A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM WEST TO EAST. FCAST HIGHS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S/LOWER 80S WHILE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.

CURRENTLY AN H5 LOW IS SPINNING OVER MONTANA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST KEEPING THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS  ON WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE OFF THE ROCKIES INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL SEE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THESE STORMS
AGAIN MAY BECOME SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SET IN OVER THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO RANGE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BURTIS
&&

.AVIATION...
1236 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINDS BEING
THE BIG ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER
12Z THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.

KJ
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG WARNING FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DROPPED BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT. WILL LEAVE
THE RED FLAG WARNING AS IS ATTM.

BURTIS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001-013-027-041.

NE...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 AM MDT TUE JUN 10 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1027 AM MDT TUE JUN 10 2008 /1127 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA THROUGH BREWSTER AND
TRIBUNE KANSAS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

WEST OF THE DRYLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IN THIS AREA IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NORTON KANSAS TO GOVE KANSAS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAY EXPERIENCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH TORNADOES ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KJ

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