Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY THEN LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
MINNESOTA BY 00Z SATURDAY. FROM 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AREA WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BETTER JET DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE NORTHWEST/WEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS IS GENERALLY HOW THE POP/WX/QPF ORIENTATION
IS AT PRESENT TIME AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY COOLEST IN THE WEST AND WARMEST IN
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW IS PREVALENT. FOR
SATURDAY ITS NOT LOOKING AS HOT AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...LOTS OF DISCREPANCY
IN THE HANDLING OF BOTH UPPER AND LOW LEVEL WEATHER FEATURES.
THERE ARE VERY LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN 850 TEMPERATURES BY SOME 30
DEGREES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. GIVEN SUCH A LARGE DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCY AND CURRENT MODERATE RISK/TORNADO WATCH OVER THE AREA
HAVE USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR EXTENDED GRIDS.

DDT

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR
THE 18Z KMCK/KGLD TAFS. WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION AT
KMCK TIL 02Z WITH A SLIGHTLY EARLIER START TIME AT KGLD. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
MODELS ARE BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT
WILL NOT BRING THE CEILINGS THAT LOW.

MENTZER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
DECATUR...NORTON...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM AND GOVE COUNTIES OF KANSAS
AS WELL AS HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

UPPER FLOW AND MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL FAVOR QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ABOUT GOVE COUNTY KANSAS BUT GIVEN RATHER LOW FFG IT HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE WATCH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.

CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-051515-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1001 AM MDT WED JUN 4 2008 /1101 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS
EVENING. THE AIR MASS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL OF THE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
AREA NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

MENTZER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

COZ090-042030-
YUMA COUNTY-
200 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 158 PM MDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF ARICKAREE SCHOOL...OR 11 MILES WEST OF ABARR...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY
BECOME SEVERE AND ANYONE IN WESTERN YUMA COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL WARNINGS.

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 PM MDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             2 SE YUMA               40.10N 102.70W
06/04/2008  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KJAMES