Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
128 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. QVECTORS INDICATE STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THAT FEATURE TONIGHT. CONVECTION
WILL INITIATE ON THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE. FRONT WILL INTERCEPT THAT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS...RESULTING IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO NEAR DUE EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST CWA...WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND EHI VALUES SUGGEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST. IN ADDITION...RUC AND NAM SHOW
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WITH ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW AND LEAVE ANY SHORT FUSE
WARNINGS FOR TONIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...BLOWING DIRT WILL
BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY. WIND WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNRISE...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY
THROUGH THAT TIME...AND AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR
THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ONLY SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT AT 18Z SATURDAY NEAR HILL CITY. MAY INSERT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER THERE...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS DRY. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ON SATURDAY WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT...HARD FREEZE LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27. GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY...SO A HIGHLIGHT FOR FREEZING
CONDITIONS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

FINALLY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM... (MONDAY - THURSDAY)
128 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

UPPER RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON
LOCATION OF THE NEXT FRONT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THERE WILL BE
ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WHICH WOULD
INITIATE CONVECTION ON THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT
AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE ON
THURSDAY...WITH ECMWF SHOWING SIGNIFICANT POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...BUT GFS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS. HPC LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
128 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

FOR THE UPCOMING 18Z TAFS...NO AVIATION PROBLEMS THROUGH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
KANSAS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KGLD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS TONIGHT...REACHING KMCK BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY AT KMCK. WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. AREAS OF BLOWING DIRT
MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IMMEDIATELY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

24

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     /7 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
     COZ090>092.

&&

FOLTZ/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
935 AM MDT THU APR 24 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
935 AM MDT THU APR 24 2008 /1035 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO GOVE. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
623 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             2 N BEARDSLEY           39.84N 101.23W
04/24/2008  E1.50 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
626 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             6 S BEARDSLEY           39.72N 101.23W
04/24/2008  E0.88 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
651 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HAIL             8 SSE ATWOOD            39.70N 100.98W
04/24/2008  E0.88 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
652 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             12 N LEVANT             39.55N 101.19W
04/24/2008  E1.75 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
730 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             SELDEN                  39.54N 100.57W
04/24/2008  E1.75 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
732 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             SELDEN                  39.54N 100.57W
04/24/2008  E4.25 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLM