Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HOW HOT IT WILL GET
OVER THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOME UPPER
JET SUPPORT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BY
06Z SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z THEN OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. SHOULD REMAIN QUIET UNTIL 21Z WHEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA OF COLORADO. LIKE
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS IDEAS IN THE QPF FOCUSING IT ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE HPC QPF GUIDANCE. HAVE
KEPT POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AS A RESULT.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...THIS SHOULD
CARRY ANY LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED IN MODEL QPF WITHIN THE 700 THETA-E
AXIS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG TO MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BOTH NIGHTS
AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH IS NEARLY SATURATED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z
THURSDAY WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO/CENTRAL UTAH.
COMBINATION OF BETTER 700-500 MOISTURE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE FOR HIGHEST
POPS...SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST. WILL BUMP THEM UP A BIT MORE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA HOWEVER WHERE FRONTAL POSITION
IS EXPECTED. FOR THURSDAY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES A BIT MORE STABLE
IN THE MORNING SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING...HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN 1/3 OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TROUGH WILL TRY AND MOVE EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED ACROSS OKLAHOMA
LOOKS TO BLOCK ITS PROGRESS. BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
THE HOT TEMPERATURES. 850 TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS/ECWMF OVER THE
WEEKEND IN THE 90S UNMODIFIED WHICH WOULD EASILY SUGGEST CENTURY
MARK READINGS. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MEX/HPC GUIDANCE HIGHS THESE
DAYS...LIMITED BY COLLABORATIVE GUIDELINES FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. PLENTY OF TIME TO BUMP THEM UP.

DDT

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE AND POOLING OF MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF AND ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM YUMA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SHERIDAN COUNTY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
FIRST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN NORTH THE THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN INTO A WARM FRONT AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING TAKES PLACE AND THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO DEEPENS
AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AND POSSIBLY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY.

LOCKHART

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1102 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1102 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2008 /1202 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER SUNSET. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER WYOMING TO SPAWN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND DEVELOP INTO AN
MCS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34 WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2008

COZ091-KSZ013-022130-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-SHERMAN-
242 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 241 PM MDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF BURLINGTON AND MOVING EAST AT 28 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 13.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 184 AND 211.

FOLTZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 PM MDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     HAIL             5 N BURLINGTON          39.38N 102.27W
06/02/2008  E1.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KJAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
316 PM MDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             E BURLINGTON            39.31N 102.27W
06/02/2008  E2.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

CDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
319 PM MDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             NE BURLINGTON           39.31N 102.27W
06/02/2008  M4.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RELAYED FROM COCORAHS...LEAVES ARE SHREDDED...CAR
            DENTS... AND DAMAGED SHINGLES.

&&

CDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
322 PM MDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             2 E BURLINGTON          39.31N 102.23W
06/02/2008  E1.50 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BASEBALL SIZED HAIL ON ROAD.

&&

CDH