Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 122153
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
353 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2008


COZ252>254-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-122300-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080312T2200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
353 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2008 /453 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON. 

NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE BEGINNING TO RECOVER. THEREFORE...THE RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM MDT.

$$

BLM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
250 AM MDT

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TODAY
FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WEEKEND
REMAINS RATHER INTERESTING IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WHOSE PATH REMAINS IN QUESTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW WILL DICTATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/PRECIPITATION TYPE AND HOW MUCH WIND AS WELL
AS COLD AIR COME WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
250 AM MDT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST 1/3 OR SO
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH
THE MOISTURE AND THERE IS SOME JET DIVERGENCE...MAINLY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS GIVEN THE HEIGHT OF
THE EXPECTED CLOUD BASES. THE MAIN BATCH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...NEARLY
EXITING THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THOSE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS AGAIN IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS MORE MOIST AND THE
NGM/NAM/SREF DRIER. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN STEEPEN BUT RIGHT
NOW FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE KEEPING SILENT POPS GOING BUT ITS WORTH
WATCHING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. STILL
HAVING ISSUES WITH HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A DISTURBANCE WITHIN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING. INCREASING JET DIVERGENCE
ON TOP OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS GOING...BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER ACTIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
IN THE WX/POP GRIDS OTHER THAN TO EMPHASIZE HIGHER CHANCE OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE EXACT HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT BEFORE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION CHANGES THE POP/WX GRIDS. PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
250 AM MDT

SATURDAY...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WHO BY 12Z SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP AS
WARMER AIR GETS PUMPED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
850 TEMPERATURES PER GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
EAST...50 ACROSS THE WEST. NO CHANGES TO WX/POP GRIDS AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WELL AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. NO
CHANGES TO WX/POP GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY 00Z TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW OR A PIECE OF IT WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA WITH SOME
RESIDUAL ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH...ALL WITHIN A LARGE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND/OR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE DEPENDS ON WHAT
MODEL YOU BELIEVE. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST SNOW IN THIS AREA WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND WOULD SUPPORT RAIN. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR I WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE THE GFS WITH SNOW. SOMEONE IS GONNA
GET SOME RATHER APPRECIABLE SNOW...EXACTLY WHERE IS THE QUESTION.
FOR TUESDAY GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST OF
US WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AIR COMING UP THE BACKSIDE INTO
PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO. DEFINITELY A TIME PERIOD TO WATCH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DDT

&&

.AVIATION...
515 AM MDT

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER BY 00Z WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED
ISOLATED COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME RANGE.

24

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
445 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
445 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2008 /545 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO OCCUR.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.

FIRES WILL START QUICKLY...SPREAD FURIOUSLY AND BURN INTENSELY.
ALL FIRES ARE POTENTIALLY SERIOUS. ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE
AVOIDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT HEAVY AND IN THE FORM OF SNOW ALONG
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS. THE EXACT TRACK HOWEVER REMAINS IN
QUESTION AND WILL BE RESOLVED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RESIDENTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PATH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DDT