Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 190051
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
651 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008

COZ252>254-KSZ001-013-NEZ079-190200-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-080519T0100Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-DUNDY-
651 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008 /751 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA HAVE SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS. SO HAVE DROPPED THE
RED FLAG WARNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO RECOVER TO 60
PERCENT TONIGHT.

$$

BURTIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1214 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
221 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008

AS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD...FORECAST CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AFTERNOON TEMPS AND BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SEEING RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA GIVEN BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES.
WILL SEE WINDS ALOFT WEAKER TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE MET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...DOUBT WE WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS EXCEEDING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA TODAY AND WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR TODAY. H85 TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S C WOULD TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 90 DEGREES. SHOULD HAVE A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE TEMP-WISE ON MONDAY. WEAK H85-H7 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS TRYING TO BREAK OUT
PRECIP BUT GIVEN LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WILL KEEP POPS
SILENT FOR NOW.

LITTLE CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED GOING
FORECAST OF MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
BY MIDDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION. ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT BUT HAS DIFFERED WITH
ITSELF IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THE
LAST FEW RUNS. CERTAINLY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...STARTING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL TO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT NATURE AND EXTENT OF
THE IMPACT ON OUR CWA. OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ADDING TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SEE NO PROBLEM IN ADVECTING
DEEP MOISTURE INTO MOST OF THE CWA. EC SHOWING A DIFFUSE NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED DRYLINE SETTING UP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESSENTIALLY FROM CULBERTSON THROUGH HOXIE. APPEARS H7 TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 14C WILL RESULT IN A CAP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. EC
PROGGING H7 TEMPS OF AROUND 12 C OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
CWA WHICH IS BORDERLINE FOR LATE MAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS WHICH
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IF THE CAP IS ABLE
TO BE BROKEN. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE CAPPING WILL
BE STRONGER.

THURSDAY BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS WINDS IN THE H85-H7 LAYER BACK. H7 TEMPS BECOME LESS OF A
CONCERN ON THURSDAY WITH THE EC COOLING THEM TO LESS THAN 10 C.
WITH THE PERSISTENT FLOW OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE CONTINUING AND EC
SHOWING A TIGHTENING DRYLINE SETTING UP ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER...HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. POSITION OF
THE DRYLINE WILL...OF COURSE...BE CRITICAL IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1206 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z TOMORROW.
TODAYS WINDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...THEN RETURN TO THE 20 KT RANGE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY
15Z TOMORROW FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

BLM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008 /1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BLM