Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 172354
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008


COZ252>254-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-180100-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-080518T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
554 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008 /654 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO RISE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMES TO AN END...THUS ENDING THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT BELOW 10 MPH.

$$

BURTIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
207 AM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES AS EVIDENCED BY
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED H5 LOW AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE BIG BEND
REGION OF TEXAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITUATED OVER
THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER WITH RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING UP THE
COAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST.

FOLTZ
&&

.DISCUSSION...
207 AM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008

AS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE HIGH PLAINS...FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND AFTERNOON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL AS RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ONCE AGAIN...MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
TERM AND HAVE THUS GONE WITH A BLEND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM. WILL SEE A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WHILE NOT THAT
UNCOMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...COULD SEE A CLOSE CALL WITH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY IF IT ENDS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

STARTING TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET CAUGHT UP ON
THE DETAILS BUT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR SURE.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON...ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z/16 ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR TIMING OF PRECIP. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMBINED WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL HELP BRING ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT ECMWF PROGS H7 TEMPS IN THE 12-14 C RANGE
WHICH COULD CREATE TOO STRONG OF A CAP TO BE OVERCOME THIS TIME OF
YEAR. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE JUST LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1144 AM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. ONLY FEW/SCT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 20
TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE WEST BY 06Z.

BLM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

WFO GOODLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008 /1133 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL IN QUESTION.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOLTZ/BLM