Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WGUS73 KGLD 080036
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
633 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2008

KSC109-080043-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-080708T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOGAN KS-
733 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN
COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3913 10105 3913 10082 3895 10082 3894 10106

$$

BURTIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
157 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2008

16Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HE
HIGH PLAINS...WITH NORTHERN PART IMPACTING THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN
PART OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RUC DYNAMIC TROP ANALYSIS SUGGEST
THAT THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN LARGER
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ALTHOUGH IT APPEARED POORLY DEFINED IN OBSERVATIONS AT
16Z.  MORNING RAOBS INDICATE PWS 100-140 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
DDC SOUNDING INDICATING CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING BELOW H75.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
HYDRO ISSUES TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND
FINDING THE EXACT POSITION OF IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT. UNLIKE YESTERDAY
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH EXPECTED
FRONTAL POSITION ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR
COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH. SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH 12Z. LLJ BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN BY 03Z...WITH STRONGEST FORCING ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. AM CONCERNED THAT BEST FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH STORM
MOTIONS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT WANT TO
SEE AFTERNOON OBS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL ON POPS. WHEN STORMS
DEVELOP...MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW WITH FAIRLY HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS LEADING ME TO THINK LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. PWS
ARE ABOVE 100 PERCENT NEAR THE AREA AND MORNING DDC SOUNDING
INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST
FORCING APPEARS TO THE SOUTH OF AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
YESTERDAY SO NEED FOR A WATCH APPEARS LOW...BUT MAY BE A NEED IF
WIDESPREAD STORMS LOOK TO SET UP AGAIN IN WALLACE COUNTY.

TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH OMEGA FIELDS SHOW
FORCING RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING...AM GOING TO HOLD
ON TO A LOW POP FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. OTHERWISE POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE HEATING WILL BE SUFFICENT
TO ELIMINATE ANY CAP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WHILE THERE IS NO
STRONG FORCING MECHANISM BROAD EASTERLY FLOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO KEEP THREAT FOR A STORM GOING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT INCREASING INHIBITION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES
OUT OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH 90S RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING OF A FRONT SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS ON FRIDAY...WITH DGEX...ECMWF AND ENS MEAN BEING MUCH SLOWER
AND WILL TREND FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE QUITE THE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE BEGINNING TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH 100S POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND LOW 80S POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY. FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GENERALLY KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FROM SATURDAY ON AS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE AREA AND SFC
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
JRM
&&

.AVIATION...
1125 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2008

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH
OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY DURING HEAVIER RAIN.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY ONCE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE AND SPECIFIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE IDENTIFIED FOR THE RESPECTIVE TAF SITES.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY SAG INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT.

24
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
308 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081315-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
308 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2008 /408 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A COLD
FRONT...WHICH LIES ALONG A LINE FROM NORTON TO TRIBUNE IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS NEAR STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
INITIAL STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH
WIND AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE
SAME AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2008

KSZ041-042-072200-
GREELEY-WICHITA-
427 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND GREELEY
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 326 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF HORACE...AND MOVING EAST AT 22
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 114.

BURTIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
352 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2008

KSZ004-016-072215-
GRAHAM-NORTON-
452 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND GRAHAM COUNTY
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PALCO TO QUINTER...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 59 MPH.

PENNY SIZED HAIL...WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

BURTIS