Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
314 PM MST WED JAN 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CA COAST NEAR SFO BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND
EARLY THU. MODELS EJECT THIS CLOSED LOW IN PIECES ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AS THE KICKER SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY IN THE GULF OF AK DROPS DOWN
THE WEST COAST...ONLY TO TAKE ITS PLACE ALONG THE CA COAST BY FRI
MORNING.

FIRST PIECE OF THE EJECTING LOW SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT
THU...WITH SEWD EXTENSION SWIPING SE UT/SW CO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
TAP THE SRN STREAM MOISTURE THAT IS LURKING ALONG THE US/MEXICO
BORDER..WITH GFS THE MOST BULLISH AND BRINGING 700 MB SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 3+ G/KG N INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN MTNS THU AFTN. SECOND PIECE OF THE EJECTING
LOW MOVES ACROSS UT/WRN CO THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD BE
IN PLACE...AND JET DYNAMICS/OROGRAPHICS WORKING WITH INCREASING
STATIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS
AND MANY VALLEYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT GJT AND DRO INDICATE THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SATURATED OR NEARLY SO IN THE OPTIMAL SNOW CRYSTAL
GROWTH AREA /-15C/. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED IN THE SAN
JUANS/ABAJO/LA SAL MTNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH
STILL SOME NAGGING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO LOW EJECTING MORE IN PIECES
THAT A SINGLE OPEN WAVE AND ONLY THE GFS BRINGING THE BEST MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE CURRENT MTN WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO MOVED THE WARNING STARTING TIME UP
TO NOON ON THU. COULD SEE ADVISORY SNOW AMTS FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS...
BUT WILL LEAVE THAT DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS AS DON/T BELIEVE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS WILL START THERE UNTIL THU NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS SW OR WSW...SO NOT THE BEST FOR BIG ACCUMS IN THE NRN MTNS.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN JUANS FROM
DURANGO TO PAGOSA SPRINGS. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA /ZONE 23/ EARLIER TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
THE WATCH THERE FOR THU AFTN-FRI. MOIST SW TO SSW FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO BEGIN THU AFTN...THOUGH HEAVIEST ACCUMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE THU NIGHT. LEFT DURANGO OUT AS THINK THEY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER...BUT THIS AREA SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

DRYNG COMMENCES FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS ERN UT FRI AND WILL INDICATE A
DIMINISHING OF POPS FROM W TO E FRI AFTN. NO REAL SURGE OF COLD
AIR...SO TEMPS ON FRI JUST A FEW DEGS COOLER.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT BREAK WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRACKS OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY. SHOWERS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES
NORTHWARD. CUTOFF LOW SITTING WEST THE CA PAC COAST CONTINUES TO TURN
IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC
NORTHWEST AND HELPS TO KICK THE CUTOFF LOW OUT AND EAST.  AS THE LOW
OPENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. THE KICKER
THEN TRACKS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE DETAILS STILL IS UNCERTAIN. EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
INCREASE THE POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH A
SUBTROPICAL TAP INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC. WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WOULD SEE THE BRUNT
OF THE SNOWFALL.

AFTER THE EXIT OF THE SECOND TROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE ZONAL BY MID WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
        FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...ZONES 18 AND 19.
      WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY AND PAGOSA
        SPGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...ZONE 23.
.UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY
        FOR THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...ZONE 28.

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM....AS
AVIATION....AS

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