Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
337 AM MST SUN JAN 27 2008

...MAJOR WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ENTER EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ONE...TWO PUNCH WITH TWO STORM SYSTEMS MOVING OVER THE AREA
STARTING LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO HAVE CONSIDERED THEM ONE EVENT. HIGH
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HAS INTRUDED INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE SURGES OVER THE AREA. DEEP SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP COULD
INCREASE PW VALUES FOUR FOLD. SOME WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL HELP MODERATE SNOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL HELP WARM A FEW PLACES AND EXCHANGE SOME OF
THE COLD VALLEY AIR FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT SO KEPT THE SLIGHT
WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH KEPT MOST NUMBERS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. BANKING ON THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER UT AND NORTHERN AZ
TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OVER THE CWA EARLIER THAN LATER TO HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURE RISES.

STRONG JET TO MOVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NAM SHOWING 156
KTS AT 250 MB MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. GFS HAS A
170 KT JET OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN REGION AT 12Z MONDAY. WINDS
DECREASE SLOWLY ON MONDAY AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH SPEEDS OF 110 TO
120 KTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW 50 TO 65 KTS
WINDS AT 700 MB LEVEL TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
35 AND 55 KTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON WIND
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MORE TO THE WEST. MODELS
INDICATE MIXING OF THE UPPER WINDS DOWNWARD HELPING RIDGE TOP WINDS
TO REACH THE 50 TO 70 KTS RANGE AT TIMES WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MID
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS WITH A 700 MB LOW FORMING OVER
THE NORTHERN CO MTNS. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT
IN COMBINATION WITH THE JET DYNAMICS. GFS ALSO HAS GOOD FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE. AS THE SECOND TROUGH...THE
KICKER...MOVES OVERHEAD AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO TRACK OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND INCREASE
IN SFC WINDS.

NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO THE
AREA...WILL BIAS TOWARD THE NAM WITH TIMING THE HIGHLIGHTS. THE VERY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
SUBSTANTIALLY IN BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN JUAN...
SAWATCH...AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS SO WILL CHANGE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE
PROBLEMS IN THE SAN JUAN AND ANIMAS RIVER BASINS SO WILL CHANGE THE
HEAVY SNOW WARNING TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR
THE PARADOX VALLEY AND FOUR CORNERS ZONES TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN WILL KEEP
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND STAY BELOW FREEZING WHICH LOOKS GOOD
FOR AN OVER RUNNING SITUATION SO WILL ADD THEM THE THE HIGHLIGHTS
WITH A SNOW ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL REMAIN THE
SAME. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS AND START TIME IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND YAMPA RIVER BASIN SO WILL LEAVE THIS FOR ANOTHER MODEL
RUN AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT FINE TUNE.

THE AXIS OF THE SECOND TROUGH EJECTS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDRANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS TONIGHT...AS
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO GET HIT BY MORE STORMS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRING A BREAK IN
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
DGEX AND EC SHOW MORE SPLITTING THAN THE GFS MODELS AND IF TRUE MAY
BLEED OFF SOME ENERGY SOUTH OF UT AND CO...BUT EVEN SO...THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER GOOD STORM. TIME-HEIGHT FORECASTS SHOW DEEP POTENTIAL
VORTICITY WITH EXCELLENT QG FORCING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS STORM.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFT TO A DRIER NW
DIRECTION AFTER THE WED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING A
RETURN TO VERY STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AS COLD AIR GETS
TRAPPED AND REINFORCED BY FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED TO SET UP WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED...BUT WEAKER...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.
THE BEST OF THESE SHOULD COME THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE EC IS
WEAKER WITH THE SAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG PACIFIC STORM BRINGS PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW
WITH AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS.
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WELL PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE OVER RIDGES AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
       FOR THE SAN JUAN...SAWATCH AND ELK MOUNTAINS...ZONES 12/18/19.
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT
        MONDAY FOR THE GRAND MESA AND UNCOMPAGHRE
        PLATEAU...ZONES 9/17.
    WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR
        THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES AND
         THE PARADOX VALLEY AND FOUR CORNERS ...ZONES
          20/21/22/23.
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY
        THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE ROAN PLATEAU...ZONE 3.
      WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
        MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO...
             INCLUDING ZONES  4/10/13.
.UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND THE
        LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
        MONDAY...ZONES 23 AND 28.
      SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY
        THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS PLATEAU
        ...ZONE 25.
      SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
         EASTERN UINTA BASIN...ZONE 24.

SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM....CJC
AVIATION.....CJC

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