Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Hastings, NE

Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Clay County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Polk County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1104 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE GRAND
ISLAND AREA BY DAWN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFE CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20KTS BY LATE MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL COME ABOUT AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008/

AVIATION...00Z TAF. IFR TO OCCASIONALLY LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING...WILL
LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS AND SNOW WILL TAKES VSBY DOWN TO
ABOUT 1 MILE ON AVERAGE...AND DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. THE MORNING
AREAS TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE COMBINATION OF
POOREST VSBYS...LOWEST CEILINGS...AND GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008/

SHORT TERM...SEVERAL PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH FOR THIS FORECAST
INCLUDING FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  KUEX WSR-88D AT MID-AFTERNOON SHOWS
VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  IT
APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...AND HAVE ADDED VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
INTO THE GRIDS.  THE LARGER STORM SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THE 12Z NAM/WRF AND GFS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BAND DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.  THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.  SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM/WRF AND GFS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF
WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN MANY REGARDS...AND GENERALLY WENT
WITH A HPC/CONSENSUS FORECAST WHICH PLACES THE HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IN THE END...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW IN THE AREA OF HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

OBVIOUSLY THERE REMAINS MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT
STILL HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND CAN
SEE THINGS STILL BEING ADJUSTED QUITE A BIT.  FIRST...WILL THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING BE ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY CAUSE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS?  CURRENTLY WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A HEADLINE THIS
EVENING...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.  THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND ALSO REMAINS ELUSIVE IN THE MODELS...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS MOVE THIS AROUND.

LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER WAVE SET TO BRING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE MS
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE SOME BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ON WEDNESDAY IN BETWEEN THIS EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE
WAVE DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED FRESH SNOW COVER WILL TEMPER THE WARM
UP...AND WILL AIM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. THE WAVE PUSHES EAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE DRY
BELOW 700MB AND FORCING IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS WAVE...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS NEXT WAVE.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY. THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHES A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THROUGH...BUT THERE/S REALLY NO COLD AIR BEHIND IT AND WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARM TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED AMOUNTS...HAVE DELAYED THE WARM UP SOME
LATE WEEK...HOLDING OFF THE WARMER TEMPS UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...KNOCKING TEMPS
BACK...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE CLIMO...FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     NEZ074>077-082>087.

KS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

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