Wind Advisory 9, NWS Hastings, NE

Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Clay County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Polk County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Valley County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

000 
WWUS73 KGID 201715
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
210100-
/O.EXT.KGID.WI.Y.0009.080420T1713Z-080421T0100Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...MANKATO...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...BELOIT...ORD...GREELEY...
FULLERTON...LOUP CITY...ST. PAUL...CENTRAL CITY...OSCEOLA...
LEXINGTON...KEARNEY...GRAND ISLAND...AURORA...YORK...ELWOOD...
HOLDREGE...MINDEN...HASTINGS...CLAY CENTER...GENEVA...
BEAVER CITY...ALMA...FRANKLIN...RED CLOUD...SUPERIOR...NELSON...
HEBRON
1215 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST 
OF HIGHWAY 281. 

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

$$

000 
WWUS73 KGID 201947
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
247 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
202100-
/O.CAN.KGID.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-080421T0100Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...MANKATO...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...BELOIT...ORD...GREELEY...
FULLERTON...LOUP CITY...ST. PAUL...CENTRAL CITY...OSCEOLA...
LEXINGTON...KEARNEY...GRAND ISLAND...AURORA...YORK...ELWOOD...
HOLDREGE...MINDEN...HASTINGS...CLAY CENTER...GENEVA...
BEAVER CITY...ALMA...FRANKLIN...RED CLOUD...SUPERIOR...NELSON...
HEBRON
247 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. THOUGH SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1210 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST WEATHER FACTOR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS NEAR
30KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO EASTERN KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE MAIN ISSUE SUNDAY IS INCREASING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. WINDS
WILL SHOW A SHARP INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. AS
WITH YESTERDAY/S RUN...BOTH THE NAM/GFS DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS INFRINGING ON THE WESTERN CFWA FOR A SHORT TIME SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG WINDS BELT THE AREA ALL DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
LIKELY. DID MY BEST NOT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FROM LOWER
80S...ALTHOUGH IS SETTLED ON A RANGE FROM 78 TO 83 ACROSS THE CWFA.
HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONAL FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE IMPACT THOSE TEMPS.

COLD FRONT IS TIMED BY GFS/NAM TO BE WORKING THROUGH THE EASTERN
CWFA SHORTLY AFTER DAWN MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN
BY BOTH MODELS AS STREAMING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND IMPACTING
THE EASTERN CWFA FOR A TIME MONDAY. CONTINUED WITH A SMALL RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWFA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS MORE LIKELY...AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND RIDES ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. AREAS TO THE EAST
OF THE CWFA ARE FAVORED WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AND ARE THE TARGETED
QPF AREA PER MODELS...BUT WITH DEVELOPMENT ON OR VERY NEAR THE
CWFA...A SMALL RISK APPEARS REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN FOCUS.

DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BENEATH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST WHILE THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE
WEST...BRINGING EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TO THE REGION WHICH
WILL HELP BEGIN TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR SOME WARMING...BUT THIS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT SO HAVE ONLY WARMED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. ENSUING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT (305K) ALL FAVOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT THEN BECOMES
FRONTAL TIMING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER WITH THIS. WILL HANG ONTO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS. THINGS
THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT BY FRIDAY WITH THE CWA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BY THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH CALL ON THURSDAY AS THEY WILL BE STRONGLY
DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING...WHICH REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT.
HAVE AIMED HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH FOR
NOW...BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT.

CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND HENCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOP BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TOTALLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING IN WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS DEEP TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE DURING
THIS TIME...WHICH FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR
THESE LATTER PERIODS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT COULD END UP
NEEDING SOME POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF
SWINGING MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
222 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
201200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
222 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME AREAS EAST OF
STATE HIGHWAY 14 LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)