Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
634 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA
TO KICK OFF THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING. COULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IN
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...AND BY
FRIDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT.  OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING.  AFTERNOON
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.  A DRY LINE WAS
STRETCHING OUT OF THE LOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH
WAS NOTED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  IT APPEARS THE MAIN PROBLEM
INITIALLY WILL BE CONVECTION FIRING NEAR/ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH...AND THEN HAVING IT MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES REACH
150-200 M2/S2 OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE SIG TOR PARAMETER
FROM THE 09Z SREF BLANKETS MOST OF THE CWA WITH VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2...AND ARE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES IS STILL ALL THERE.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO REMAINS AN ISSUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH
THE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY RAPID MOVERS...THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING REMAINS WITH AREA SOILS STILL VERY WET OR SATURATED. IT
APPEARS SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH
THE INITIAL ROUND COMING FROM THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE...AND THEN MORE STORMS COMING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEHIND
THE DRYLINE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE AND WILL LEAVE IT IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

A LESSER CONCERN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL
BE WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FAR SOUTH.  RUC BUFR
SOUNDINGS NEAR KRSL AND KHYS SHOWS STRONG ENOUGH WINDS COULD GET
MIXED DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO PUSH
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO WITH THE ADVISORY
SINCE IT GENERALLY APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE FRONT MOSTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE GONE BY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE.

STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
COME ACROSS THE RIDGE. AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS A
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SAG TO THE SOUTH
AND BRING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

THERE IS A BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT THAT IS SHORT LIVED AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. WITH IT IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THERE WOULD NOT BE AS GOOD OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
MODELS...WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THIS UPPER LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

HEINLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
301200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
240 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 70 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THE STORMS WILL DEPART THE OUTLOOK
AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
934 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TORNADO          JEWELL                  39.67N 98.15W
05/29/2008                   JEWELL             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            POWER IS OUT ACROSS TOWN...POWER POLES AND LINES DOWN
            EVERYWHERE. TREE LIMBS 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER REPORTED
            DOWN. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
938 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             SHICKLEY                40.42N 97.72W
05/29/2008  M1.00 INCH       FILLMORE           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            50 MPH WINDS

&&

DOXEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
957 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HAIL             SMITH CENTER            39.78N 98.78W
05/29/2008  E1.50 INCH       SMITH              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL FELL BETWEEN 836 PM AND 841 PM

&&

DOXEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1001 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

NEZ077-300345-
FILLMORE-
1001 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 956 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GENEVA...OR 26 MILES SOUTH OF YORK...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 24 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MILLIGAN BY 1020 PM CDT
  EXETER BY 1025 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1009 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     TSTM WND GST     EXETER                  40.64N 97.45W
05/29/2008  E60 MPH          FILLMORE           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VERY HEAVY RAIN ALSO REPORTED

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1012 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     FAIRMONT                40.64N 97.58W
05/29/2008  E0 MPH           FILLMORE           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            60 MPH WINDS

&&

DOXEY