Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. QUIET VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT WITH
AS SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. HAVE
PUSHED BACK START TIME OF PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SEVERAL HOURS...AS IT APPEARS ANY STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF KGRI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO
BETTER PIN DOWN THE DETAILS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THAT KGRI IS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ON THE OUTER FRINGES
OF THE AREA MOST FAVORED TO SEE PRECIPITATION. ONCE ANY STORMS
MOVE OUT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH PREVAILING NORTHEAST BREEZES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008/

DISCUSSION...RETREATION OF DRY SURGE CERTAINLY FELT ACROSS
THE CWFA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH OF THE CWFA IS EXPERIENCING MIDDLE
60 DEWPOINTS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SPRING. WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE/TROUGH IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN SANDHILLS.
PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS COVER THE CWFA...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE YET TO
ANY PUSH TOWARD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS SEEMS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE TRAILING TROUGH WITH
THE WEAK LOW THROUGH THE CWFA...AND SHOVING MOISTURE WITH IT. IT
JUST SEEMS TO QUICK WITH SO MUCH JUICE AROUND AND REALLY NOT A
WHOLE OF PUSH. ANYWAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WE AWAIT A FAVORABLE JET POSITION RELATIVE
TO H250 JET STREAK SET TO MOVE THROUGH AND PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THAT WILL HELP FIRE/SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY...
AS WILL STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH OVERAL QG FORCING
SEEMS IFFY. ACTIVITY WILL FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE HEAT OF
THE DAY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MOST OF THE CWFA...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS.
IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWFA WILL MANAGE TO STAY
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THAT IS DEPENDENT UPON
HOW THINGS GO SUNDAY NIGHT TOO. IF SUCH A LOCATION IS THE
CASE...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
CWFA...AND THEN THINGS GO HYDRO BALLISTIC AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD BET...AND HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN THERE.

COOLED THINGS OFF TUESDAY IS STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW...CLOUDS AND
COOL ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...IF EVEN THAT
SOME AREAS. REMOVED POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE CWFA.

HYDROLOGY...HYDROLOGY ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAIN FOCUS
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CURRENTLY ABOUT A DOZEN RIVER
SITES REMAIN IN FLOOD...WITH SOLOMON RIVER NEAR PORTIS KANSAS
CONSIDERED A MAJOR FLOOD AT THE 2ND HIGHEST CREST ON RECORD AT
ABOUT 25 FEET...AND THE REPUBLICAN RIVER NEAR CAMBRIDGE OVER
10 FEET FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE LATE 40S. AS MENTIONED
ALREADY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING
ISSUES SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED. THOUGH THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN MORE BULLISH ON A GREATER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN...
THE WATCH TONIGHT WAS CONFINED TO A SMALL NINE COUNTY AREA IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWFA. A FEW OF THOSE COUNTIES...THAYER/MITCHELL...
HAVEN/T HAD A LOT OF HEAVY RAIN. ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW
COUNTIES...LIKE SMITH/JEWELL...ARE EXPERIENCING PLENTY OF
FLOODING. AGREE WITH HPC IDEA OF THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY FIRING
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA...DROPPING SOME HEAVY RAIN...AND THEN
MOVING EAST AND DUMPING THE HEAVIEST RAIN (3+ INCHES) EAST OF THE
CWFA. IRONICALLY...HISTORY TELLS US IF ONE PLACE IN THE HASTINGS
CWFA WILL FLOOD WITH THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...IT IS EXACTLY IN THE
WATCH AREA.

AT FIRST GLANCE...MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA LOOKS VERY
ACTIVE. OF NOTE IS A MREF BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH IS
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION JUST HOW FAR NORTH HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL...AS QPF BOMB COULD BE CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 70. THAT IS
WHERE THE UKMET SUGGESTS THINGS WILL END UP...AND THE UKMET HAS DONE
VERY WELL THE PAST 3 NIGHTS WITH THESE LARGE SCALE QPF BLOWUPS.
IT SEEMS LIKELY SOME SORT OF FLOOD HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY...IT APPEARS THE WATER-LOGGED WEST/NORTHERN CWFA ARE THE
LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH I DON/T THINK
DRY WILL CUT IT THERE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THAT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR FLOODING TO EASE SOME. MID TO LATE WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY
AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ064-076-077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

AVIATION...PFANNKUCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

KSZ018-252045-
OSBORNE-
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  SOUTHERN OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

AT 313 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NATOMA...OR 49 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PHILLIPSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 26 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHERN OSBORNE COUNTY BY 330 PM CDT
  RURAL CENTRAL OSBORNE COUNTY BY 340 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AWJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

KSZ018-252115-
OSBORNE-
339 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  SOUTHERN OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

AT 335 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF LURAY...OR 46 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHERN OSBORNE COUNTY BY 350 PM CDT
  RURAL CENTRAL OSBORNE COUNTY BY 400 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AWJ