Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF KGRI TERMINAL AND SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD KGRI. TOWARD
MORNING THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND FINALLY BREAK
OUT THIS EVENING. THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCE IS SMALL ENOUGH WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW
AND WATCH IT FOR LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008/

SHORT TERM...PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A FLAT RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.  RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS IS AN ACTIVE
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT SHORT WAVES SEEN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.  ONE OF THESE WAVES IS CURRENTLY
SITTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. PER RUC ANALYSIS
DATA...THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A SWATCH OF DIFFLUENCE AROUND 700MB
WHICH HAS ALLOWED A BROKEN LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF AN
UNSTABLE 800-700MB LAYER...TO SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  REGIONAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NEARLY STALLED FRONT SITTING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SEEN
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WHICH VIA RUC ANALYSIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY BELOW 850MB OVER MOST OF NEBRASKA INTO FAR
NORTHERN KANSAS.

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION HEADS INTO
TONIGHT...IS WHETHER ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.  THE NAM SHOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE 800-700MB LAYER
STAYING SOUTH OF AN ELWOOD TO SUPERIOR LINE.  GIVEN THE TREND IN THE
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH OVER TIME...WILL LEAVE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND THE SOUTHERN ROW IN NEBRASKA WHILE GOING DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA.  BIGGER ISSUE INVOLVES THE THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK TO MODEST 20
TO 30 KT LLJ NOSES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.  ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL
BE MARGINAL...IT APPEARS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LOUP CITY TO YORK LINE...BETWEEN 06Z TO 09Z.  WITH
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...CONVECTION SHOULD BE
DECENTLY ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN SEEN OVERNIGHT WITH VALUES STAYING AT OR BELOW 30 KTS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS BELOW STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS.  WILL
KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT ONLY MENTION SMALL HAIL
LESS THAN DIME SIZED.

FOR SUNDAY...MANY QUESTIONS EXIST AS TO WHETHER THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE MCS FROM TONIGHT WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY
EAST...ELEVATED CAPES OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH THICKNESS
DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING BACK BUILDING...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  NONETHELESS...THE
INSTABILITY AXIS SLIDES WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH CONVECTION EITHER MOVING OUT OF THE CWA OR DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY.  TEMPERATURE WISE...CLOUD COVER FROM MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY TO
FORECAST BUT WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE EVENING HOURS THEN LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION FORMING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS...LOOKS
TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LLJ NOSING
INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FCST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED WITH THE SMALL
RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK LIFT
REMAINS NEARBY IN INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW. THIS IS LOOKING LESS AND
LESS LIKELY/IMPACTFUL...AND HAVE ACTUALLY REMOVED RAIN CHANCE FROM
TUESDAY AT THIS POINT.

MAIN DETAIL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS THE WEDNESDAYISH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID WEEK
COLD FRONT JUST BLOWING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL STILL BE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT...
AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO EXISTING FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LITTLE DETAILS TO WORK OUT EVENTUALLY.

LOOKING AT THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS DRY. DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR SOME FALL-LIKE DRY AIR TO SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA AND KEEP THINGS PLEASANT. GFS TRYING TO HINT
AT SOME RETURN FLOW MOISTURE BY SATURDAY...BUT FAR TOO EARLY TO BE
WORRIED ABOUT ANY SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
413 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
241200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
413 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SOUTH OF A LOUP CITY TO
YORK LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...PEA SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

KSZ005-006-240630-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-
1258 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  WEST CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

AT 1252 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AGRA...OR 11 MILES EAST OF PHILLIPSBURG...
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KENSINGTON BY 105 AM CDT
  ATHOL BY 115 AM CDT

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

JCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
112 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

KSZ005-240645-
PHILLIPS-
112 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

AT 107 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOGAN...OR 13 MILES WEST OF PHILLIPSBURG...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPEED BY 125 AM CDT

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

JCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
127 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

KSZ006-007-018-019-240700-
JEWELL-MITCHELL-OSBORNE-SMITH-
127 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

AT 122 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PORTIS...OR 32 MILES WEST OF BELOIT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DOWNS BY 140 AM CDT
  DOWNS BY 145 AM CDT
  CAWKER CITY BY 155 AM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
130 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     FLASH FLOOD      OXFORD                  40.25N 99.63W
08/24/2008                   FURNAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL CITY STREETS UNDER WATER

&&

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
140 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     HAIL             OXFORD                  40.25N 99.63W
08/24/2008  E0.50 INCH       FURNAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KING