Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1248 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF. VERY WET AND ACTIVE TIME FRAME
EXPECTED FOR THE GRAND ISLAND TERMINAL AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LOW WORKS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THIS LOW MANY
QUESTIONS STILL EXIST AS TO THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY TONIGHT...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH A LARGE STRATIFORM PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF THE
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION...WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREA
THROUGH THE MID OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE BEING KICKED EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. EXPECT THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BE
QUIET BUT THEN INCREASING UPPER FORCING SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2 KFT...BUT VISIBILITY VALUES MAY
SLIP BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN LOOKS TO
DOMINATE THE TERMINAL AREA MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS
CENTERED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING...AS MORNING
CONVECTION/OUTFLOW HAS REALLY SQUELCHED ANY SHORT TERM LOCAL RISK OF
STORMS. LATE TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE NOW FIRING CONVECTION IN WYOMING
WILL BE THE TRIGGER MORE STORMS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL CLIP THE
WESTERN CWFA TOWARD DAWN. THESE WILL BE ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING MORE
FAVORABLE JET STREAK LOCATION. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY BE ONGOING MUCH OF THE DAY WESTERN CWFA...WITH LESSER
CHANCES EAST. THAT IS UNTIL MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS START TO MORE INTO
THE CWFA AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. THAT WILL
SPELL AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN CWFA. SUPPOSE
THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR A STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO
THURSDAY...BUT IF RAIN/CLOUDS GO ALL DAY...THAT WON/T HAPPEN. RAIN
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT SO HIGHER POPS ARE IN
ORDER...WITH SOME 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.

LONG TERM...12 FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PLAINS.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...MID TERM/EXTENDED PERIOD WET RIGHT
OFF THE BAT AS ONE PIECE OF ENERGY...IN BETWEEN THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE DAKOTAS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CROSSES OVER THE CWA ON
FRIDAY.  DID TAPER POPS DOWN A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING FURTHER WEST BUT DIFFERING SOME ON JUST HOW
FAR WEST IT GOES.  GFS A BIT FURTHER EAST AT 12Z SATURDAY THAN OTHER
MODELS AND NOT QUITE AS WELL DEFINED...CENTERED OVER SW NE/NW KS.
OTHERS ARE FURTHER WEST INTO THE ROCKIES...AND THINK THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED PRECIP THAN WHAT WE SEE THU/FRI...WITH
BEST CHANCES IN WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

LOOKING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO
THE CWA.  KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FURTHER OUT IN
TIME...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME PRECIP IN EACH PERIOD MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH THERE IS
OK AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIP...AND PINNING EXACT DETAILS DURING THIS FAR OUT IS VERY
DIFFICULT.  TAPERED DOWN POPS INTO SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...THINK THAT FRIDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AND
MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. KEPT HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...HOW THE PRECIP/CLOUDS
PLAY OUT THE BIG FACTOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
238 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
141200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
238 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO STOCKTON KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD DROP SOME NICKEL OR PENNY SIZE HAIL AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS BEING DAMAGING WINDS OF 60
MPH...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281.

THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A PROLONGED WET PERIOD FOR SOME AREAS...
AND AS THE GROUND SATURATES...SOME FLOODING MAY RESULT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>