Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
INCREASE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE KGRI
TERMINAL LOCATION.  THE LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL
INDEED FILL IN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  DEBATED WHETHER
OR NOT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...AND AFTER LOOKING AT SEVERAL DIFFERENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST MODELS IT APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO AT LEAST GO
WITH A PROB30 GROUP LATE TONIGHT.  ONCE THE STORMS END...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008/

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY 12Z. PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND THEN A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR SATURDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S ARE PREVALENT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WERE MUCH WARMER...IN THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE IS
ALSO A NOTEWORTHY MOISTURE DIFFERENCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONLY IN THE 30S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS SHOWING A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO
MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA. THEREFORE...ANY
HOPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR SOUTH WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUSING
MECHANISM ACROSS OUR CWA WILL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS OF THE MIXED LAYER CAPE/CIN IS SHOWING A
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CAP STILL IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AT 19Z WITH A
SLIGHT WEAKENING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SANDHILLS. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA AT 19Z WERE VERY HIGH...RUNNING FROM 14
TO 16C. THIS LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL DELAY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
HINDER THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SUBSTANTIAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS WITH THE THINKING THAT THE CAP WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK
THIS EVENING PROVIDING FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM EVENT.

COOL DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THEN FUNNELS INTO THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 80 OR
PERHAPS THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. QUIET AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SEEING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING NOT FAR
FROM RECORD VALUES.

LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
AND MOVES TO THE EAST OF MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR COOLER NIGHTS. AFTER THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
TIME TO ALLOW THE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO WORK WITH AND EXPECT THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST
SO THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW WOBBLES AROUND
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AND
EACH OF THESE SHORT WAVES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
306 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
121200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
306 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...A LAYER
OF WARM AIR ALOFT COULD POTENTIALLY DELAY OR HINDER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
851 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

NEZ062-063-120215-
HALL-HAMILTON-
851 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN HALL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 850 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF DONIPHAN...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND ISLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GILTNER BY 905 PM CDT
  PHILLIPS BY 910 PM CDT
  AURORA BY 915 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 315 AND 339.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
903 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             GILTNER                 40.77N 98.15W
07/11/2008  E0.88 INCH       HAMILTON           NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

KING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
907 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

NEZ085-086-120245-
NUCKOLLS-WEBSTER-
907 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  WEST CENTRAL NUCKOLLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  NORTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 903 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COWLES...OR 26 MILES SOUTH OF HASTINGS...AND
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BLUE HILL BY 920 PM CDT
  ROSEMONT BY 935 PM CDT
  LAWRENCE BY 945 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
909 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

NEZ076-120245-
CLAY-
909 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 907 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAIRFIELD...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HASTINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLAY CENTER BY 915 PM CDT
  SARONVILLE BY 930 PM CDT
  SUTTON BY 935 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

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