Severe Thunderstorm Warning 336, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
608 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF
KGRI WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST /
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A SOUTH / SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY BELIEVE
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. KEPT VCTS
IN THE FORECAST AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING NEAR BUT SOUTH AND EAST OF KGRI...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOCUS IS ON TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CONVECTION HAS FIRED EARLY TODAY ALONG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA...COMBINED WITH A MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THRU NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  LAPS DATA
INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG WITH
NO INHIBITION.  STORMS HAVE BECOME SEVERE DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO
AND HAVE PRODUCED SOME HAIL...AND HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE EVENING...HOWEVER MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.

CONVECTION SHLD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE BREEZY TO WINDY
DURING THE DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP INTO THE 90S FOR
HIGHS.  MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
FOCUS ON IN OUR CWA AND HAVE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

LONG TERM....12Z FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
THROUGH THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHOVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S...BUT ALSO BRING VERY WARM
AIR ALOFT. ANTICIPATING THAT SQUELCHING STORM DEVELOPMENT TIL THE
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE FRONT...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
SATURDAY. SEEMS THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WOULD BE THE
ONLY AREA TO SEE ANY RISK FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THAT AREA.

AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWFA...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE CWFA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THIS WON/T BRING THE KIND
OF DRY AIR WE SAY A COUPLE OF WEEKENDS AGO...THERE IS STILL GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEWPOINTS WILL BE SHOVED DOWN TO THE 50S FOR SOME
AREAS. THAT MAY BE OFFSET BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IMPACTS OF CORN
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES...BUT STILL FAIRLY DRY FOR MID JULY.
ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR IS COOLER TEMPERATURES...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BACK TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

HAVE LEFT THE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR NOW. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MONDAY...AND THE UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST THERE AFTER. THAT DOES NOT MEAN SOMETHING
MIGRATING THROUGH THE RIDGE OR FROM THE FRONT RANGE WON/T
OCCUR...BUT NOTHING FIRM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE NEXT
CHANCE SEEMS TO BE ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND A WEAK BOUNDARY COMES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...BRYANT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
737 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
101200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
737 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD NEBRASKA TO JEWELL KANSAS.  THE MAIN
HAZARD FROM THE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL CAUSE
AREAS OF FLOODING.  A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE DIME SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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