Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 328, NWS Hastings, NE

July 9, 2008Fillmore County, York County, Nebraska

NWS Hastings, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 9, 2008, 2:41 PM CDT for Fillmore County, York County, Nebraska. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 9, 2008, 2:41 PM CDT (19:41 UTC)
Expired: Jul 9, 2008, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Hastings, NE
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Fillmore County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 136 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -121 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1414 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 34 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 9, 1:10 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 1:10 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
110 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

.AVIATION...18Z TAF. TSTMS STARTING TO FIRE JUST TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF KGRI AND OVERALL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OUT
OF KGRI BUT DID INCLUDE A VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OVERALL WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY AFTER 12Z WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS WELL. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL BE VFR OTHER THAN AN OUTSIDE CHC OF MVFR CLOUDS FOR A
BRIEF TIME WITH TSTMS AROUND THIS AFTN.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2008/

DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WEAKENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT BARELY MADE IT INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA LATE LAST NIGHT HAVE SINCE MET THEIR DEMISE...WITH IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STEADILY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. FURTHER
NORTH...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
TREK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST NE BEING DRIVEN BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
PERHAPS SOME VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE AT H85. ALONG WITH THIS
WAVE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE STILL ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST...WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN
THE LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME SUCH ENERGY CAN BE SEEN RIPPLING ACROSS WY...WITH A
MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH MT AND
NORTHERN WY.

FOR THE MORNING HOURS...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLIP
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NE
CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN SD ATTM. 4KM WRF MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ONGOING CONVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY BRINGS IT SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. FOCUS
REMAINS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
00Z MODEL RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO REGARDING HOW THINGS
EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LEADS TO MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG DEVELOPING...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CAPPING LEFT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLING ACROSS SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PROGGED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 25 TO 35 KTS...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN HOW THIS WILL ALL PLAY OUT GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR MORNING CONVECTION TO PASS THROUGH THIS AREA AND
ALTER THE ENVIRONMENT...AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. THE NORTH/NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS THE
PREFERRED AREA FOR CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT FOCUS
SHOULD THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ.

SHOULD THEN CATCH A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH H7
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12-14C WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO
ANY CONVECTION GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
ATTENDANT WAA HELPING TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON
FRIDAY...IT SENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK CONVECTION GIVEN WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPS STILL IN PLACE AND UPPER FORCING STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA. COULD VERY WELL STAY CAPPED OFF GIVEN PROGGED MID-LEVEL
TEMPS...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO QUITE STRONG.
BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND
SPREADING SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IF STORMS CAN INDEED
BREACH THE CAP...INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR
TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA AND TAKING BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD...KEEPING LARGELY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN CWA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...WILL LIKELY NEED TO TRIM PRECIP CHANCES MORE
AS LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA GIVEN FURTHER SOUTH BOUNDARY POSITION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 9, 12:20 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
101200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN
ELWOOD TO SUPERIOR LINE. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP...WITH LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. A FEW STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ELWOOD NEBRASKA TO SUPERIOR NEBRASKA
LINE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 12:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

NEZ048-049-063-064-091830-
HAMILTON-MERRICK-POLK-YORK-
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  CENTRAL MERRICK COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 1252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HORDVILLE...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
YORK...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  POLK...
  STROMSBURG...

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 1:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
133 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

NEZ049-064-091900-
POLK-YORK-
133 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  NORTHERN YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR POLK...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF YORK...AND
MOVING EAST AT 12 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BENEDICT BY 200 PM CDT

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 1:38 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
138 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

NEZ049-091915-
POLK-
138 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  EXTREME NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 133 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUNCAN...OR NEAR COLUMBUS...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY BY 150 PM CDT

* THE THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER RURAL AREAS OF
  NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY THROUGH 215 PM CDT.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

Local storm report, Jul 9, 2:23 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
223 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             BRADSHAW                40.88N 97.75W
07/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       YORK               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FAY

Local storm report, Jul 9, 2:29 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
229 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             10 N SHELBY             41.34N 97.43W
07/09/2008  E0.50 INCH       POLK               NE   PUBLIC

0200 PM     HAIL             10 NNE OSCEOLA          41.31N 97.47W
07/09/2008  E0.88 INCH       POLK               NE   PUBLIC

0205 PM     HAIL             3 NNW SILVER CREEK      41.37N 97.69W
07/09/2008  E0.75 INCH       MERRICK            NE   PUBLIC

&&

WESELY

Local storm report, Jul 9, 2:39 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
239 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             8 N SHELBY              41.31N 97.43W
07/09/2008  M1.00 INCH       POLK               NE   PUBLIC

&&

WESELY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 1:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Polk	32 min
Jul 9, 1:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	York	54 min
Jul 9, 2:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Merrick, Nance, Polk	42 min
Jul 9, 2:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GID	Merrick, Polk	6 hr
Jul 9, 2:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Merrick, Polk	48 min
Jul 9, 3:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Clay, Fillmore, Hamilton, York	52 min
Jul 9, 3:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Polk, York	49 min
Jul 9, 3:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Clay, Fillmore, Hamilton, York	58 min
Jul 9, 3:57 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GID	Fillmore, Hamilton, Polk, York	4 hr
Jul 9, 4:33 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GID	Fillmore, Hamilton, York	6 hr
Jul 9, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Clay, Fillmore, Hamilton, York	65 min
Jul 9, 6:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Adams, Clay	32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.