Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
341 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES.

CURRENT RADAR HAS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE IN THE SOUTH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING. EXPECT THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS THE CAP ERODES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HAIL BUT AS THEY PROGRESS
THEY SHOULD FORM A LINE AND THEN WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING BUT WILL SLOW DOWN IN CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SO THAT PRECIPITATION WILL END. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
LIE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

NOT A LOT OF A SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  FLOW REMAINS ZONAL...A FLATTENED RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS...AND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STAYS TO THE NORTH NEAR THE US/CANADA
BORDER.

LOOKING AT THE MID/END OF THE WORK WEEK TIMEFRAME...MODELS DO HINT
AT SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  NO REAL STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM PRESENT...BUT MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW ALONG WITH AN THETA E AXIS WORKING INTO THE REGION.  DECIDED TO
LEAVE FORECAST DRY...CONFIDENCE LOW AS SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS DO EXIST WITH TIMING/EXACT LOCATION...BUT THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA
BOUNDARY.  FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEPT FORECAST DRY.  AS IS THE
CASE WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN...NUMEROUS WEAKER AND QUICK MOVING
WAVES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING WITH PINNING DOWN DETAILS AND NOT HAVING A WHOLE
LOT OF AGREEMENT.  AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS CROSS THROUGH THE REGION...MEANING
BASICALLY NO REAL BIG CHANGES...WITH HIGHS REACHING TO NEAR 90 AND
INTO THE MID 90S.

MORE INTERESTING PERIOD COMES DURING THE WEEKEND...WHEN NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.  A STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSES EAST
ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
PLAINS STARTING SATURDAY.  AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH...IT EVENTUALLY
LOSES ITS PUSH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND BECOMES STALLED OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OUR CWA.  THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROVIDES ENOUGH OF A
PUSH TO MOVE IT FURTHER SOUTH...LEAVING MONDAY DRY.  DID TREND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME DOWN WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
AND MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/

AVIATION...SURFACE FRONT LOCATED VERY NEAR THE KGRI
TERMINAL...ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING...WILL SERVE AS A
FORCING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 19Z...WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THEN PUSHING EAST / SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM KGRI BY 00Z. PREVAILING
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST PRE-FROPA...WITH
SURFACE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHWEST POST-FROPA...AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTH / NORTHEAST BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. LOCALLY
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CLOUD BASES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 8000 FT AGL...WITH
BASES LOWERING TO NEAR 5000 FT AGL NEAR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. BASES WILL LIFT AFTER 00Z AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
518 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
081200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
518 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AFTER 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON NORTH OF A GENEVA NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS LINE.
AFTER SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINE. THESE
STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF A GENEVA TO PHILLIPSBURG LINE WHILE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. IN
ADDITION...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN TO
PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
MID EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
STOCKTON TO SMITH CENTER TO SUPERIOR TO GENEVA LINE.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF A GENEVA TO PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
248 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

NEZ084-085-072015-
FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-
248 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  WEST CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 245 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR FRANKLIN...OR 31
MILES NORTHEAST OF PHILLIPSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIVERTON BY 300 PM CDT
  INAVALE BY 315 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BRYANT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
323 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HAIL             ROSELAND                40.47N 98.56W
07/07/2008  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

PFANNKUCH