Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
642 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE GRAND ISLAND TERMINAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAIN
QUESTION IS IF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINAL AREA
LATER THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. WILL OPT TO LEAVE STORMS OUT OF
THE FCST AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. QUITE A FEW THINGS GOING ON AT
THIS TIME...BUT WONDERING JUST WHAT WILL COME OF IT ALL. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST TOWARD 281 AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME
WEAKISH DEVELOPMENT. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE INHIBITED BY SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF MCV CIRCULATION OVER/NEAR THE CWFA. ALSO...CAPPING WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT IS PRETTY STRONG. IF SOMETHING CAN GET GOING...A PULSE TYPE
SEVERE STORM SEEMS MORE PROBABLE WITH WEAKER SHEAR THE FURTHER SOUTH
ONE GOES.

TO THE NORTH...PSEUDO BOUNDARY IS WASHING OUT A BIT IN THE NORTHERN
CWFA...BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS ON VISIBLE WITH SOME VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS LINE GOES BACK WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS...AND
CONVERGES WITH DRY LINE TYPE FEATURE IN CHERRY COUNTY. THAT AREA
MAY ALSO BE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON...FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHEAR IS BETTER UP THERE
SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS REASONABLE. STILL THOUGH...COVERAGE FOR THE CWFA LOOKS TO BE
SCATTERED AT BEST THIS EVENING...WITH SOME INCREASE OVER NORTHERN
CWFA TONIGHT AS MORE CONVECTION NEAR LIKELY SOUTH DAKOTA MCS AND
NEAR FRONT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...WOULD EXPECT SOME DEBRIS TYPE CLOUDS AND LINGER
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
CWFA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SOLIDLY PREDICT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE CWFA BY NOON...AND PROBABLY EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST CWFA AROUND 21-22Z. THAT WOULD ALLOW AREAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO WARM...AND POTENTIALLY FIRE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SPARED MOST OF THE
MAJOR RAINFALL OR STRONG STORM RELATED ISSUES. THINGS CONTINUE TO
ROLL SOUTHEAST FROM THERE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEARING AND MUCH
DRIER WEATHER COMING IN BY SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN RETURNING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
UPSTREAM THE UPPER RIDGE BULGES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. COOLER AND
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND IS REINFORCED BY NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP MIXING INDICATED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD OFFSET COOL LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FRONT WELL SOUTH...DRIER AIR IN
PLACE IN ITS WAKE...AND FORCING FROM UPPER LOW/STEEPER LAPSE RATES
STAYING EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. SHOULD BE A NICE WEEKEND WEATHER
WISE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WILL
START TO SEE TEMPS REBOUND ON MONDAY AS WELL...AS SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP. WILL SEE A RETURN OF AT LEAST SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AGAIN BEGIN TO RIPPLE THROUGH AND HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE.
DIFFICULT TO HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES THIS
FAR OUT...BUT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH WAVES SKIRTING ACROSS. AT THIS
POINT...THE MORE FAVORABLE TIME FOR MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO COOL TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING A COUPLE DAYS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
653 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
271200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
653 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
EVENING WILL EXIST SOUTH OF A GENEVA NEBRASKA...TO PHILLIPSBURG
KANSAS LINE. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME
SEVERE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND IMPACT MOST OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA WITH THE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT EXISTING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 136. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. THIS
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FULLERTON TO BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS IS WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

NEZ041-048-049-063-064-270500-
HAMILTON-MERRICK-NANCE-POLK-YORK-
1133 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  MERRICK COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  NANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  POLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YORK.
  HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 1128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DUNCAN TO SHELBY TO
FAIRMONT...AND MOVING EAST AT 47 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL EASTERN POLK AND YORK COUNTY BY 1150 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 319 AND 365.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THE MAIN GUST FRONT WITH THIS STORM IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN POLK
AND YORK COUNTIES...BUT ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING LOCATED ACROSS NANCE...MERRICK...AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1152 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     TSTM WND GST     BURR OAK                39.87N 98.30W
06/26/2008  E70 MPH          JEWELL             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1153 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             3 E RANDALL             39.64N 97.99W
06/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       JEWELL             KS   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0622 PM     HAIL             10 NE PLAINVILLE        39.34N 99.17W
06/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       ROOKS              KS   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE

0701 PM     HAIL             SCOTTSVILLE             39.54N 97.95W
06/26/2008  E1.75 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STRONG WINDS REPORTED AS WELL

0725 PM     HAIL             7 ENE CODELL            39.23N 99.06W
06/26/2008  E1.25 INCH       ROOKS              KS   PUBLIC

0730 PM     HAIL             SCOTTSVILLE             39.54N 97.95W
06/26/2008  E2.00 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   PUBLIC

            60 TO 70 MPH WINDS ALSO REPORTED

0810 PM     HAIL             2 E RANDALL             39.64N 98.01W
06/26/2008  E0.88 INCH       JEWELL             KS   PUBLIC

0817 PM     HAIL             1 E RANDALL             39.64N 98.03W
06/26/2008  E1.75 INCH       JEWELL             KS   PUBLIC

0857 PM     TSTM WND GST     GOTHENBURG              40.93N 100.16W
06/26/2008  E60.00 MPH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS IN GOTHENBURG

0910 PM     TSTM WND GST     COZAD                   40.86N 99.99W
06/26/2008  E70.00 MPH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W WILSONVILLE         40.11N 100.14W
06/26/2008  E60.00 MPH       FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

0927 PM     HAIL             CAMBRIDGE               40.28N 100.17W
06/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       FURNAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0939 PM     TSTM WND GST     BEAVER CITY             40.14N 99.83W
06/26/2008  E60.00 MPH       FURNAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0959 PM     TSTM WND GST     PHILLIPSBURG            39.75N 99.32W
06/26/2008  M54.00 MPH       PHILLIPS           KS   AWOS

            AWOS MEASURED GUST TO 54 MPH AT AIRPORT

1004 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELM CREEK               40.72N 99.38W
06/26/2008  E60.00 MPH       BUFFALO            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1006 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S STOCKTON            39.41N 99.27W
06/26/2008  E80.00 MPH       ROOKS              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT ESTIMATED WINDS AT 70 TO 80 MPH.

1012 PM     HAIL             PHILLIPSBURG            39.75N 99.32W
06/26/2008  E0.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL IS COVERING THE GROUND AND BEING DRIVEN BY 50 MPH
            WIND.

1014 PM     TSTM WND GST     PALCO                   39.25N 99.56W
06/26/2008  E60.00 MPH       ROOKS              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND DIME SIZED HAIL.

1018 PM     TSTM WND GST     KEARNEY                 40.70N 99.08W
06/26/2008  M80.00 MPH       BUFFALO            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1045 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E JUNIATA             40.59N 98.47W
06/26/2008  E60.00 MPH       ADAMS              NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

1048 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEBANON                 39.81N 98.56W
06/26/2008  E60.00 MPH       SMITH              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1049 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE GRAND ISLAND       40.96N 98.31W
06/26/2008  M63.00 MPH       HALL               NE   ASOS

            SHINGLES WERE REPORTED BLOWN OFF ROOF IN NORTHERN GRAND
            ISLAND.

1052 PM     TSTM WND GST     HASTINGS                40.59N 98.39W
06/26/2008  M63.00 MPH       ADAMS              NE   ASOS

            HASTINGS ASOS MEASURED GUST TO 63 MPH

1053 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW HASTINGS          40.60N 98.43W
06/26/2008  M63.00 MPH       ADAMS              NE   ASOS

            MEASURED AT THE HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

1102 PM     TSTM WND GST     BURR OAK                39.87N 98.30W
06/26/2008  E70.00 MPH       JEWELL             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

1123 PM     HAIL             TIPTON                  39.34N 98.47W
06/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MITCHELL COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS OFFICER REPORTING.

&&

PFANNKUCH