Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO REALLY
DEVELOP...INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF KGRI. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT KGRI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WILL INCLUDE
AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGRI TAF THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS IS STORM
CHANCES TONIGHT. CURRENTLY DEBRIS TYPE CLOUDS ROLLING
ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND A PASSING
SPRINKLE. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE KOAX CWFA THAN HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE MOVING INTO THAT AREA AND DYING. THOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT ONE OR TWO CELLS GETTING SOME LEGS...
GENERALLY BELIEVE THIS IS A NON EVENT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.

DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS...WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN STORMS COMING IN FROM THE WEST...AND THEN
DEVELOPING OVER OVER THE CWFA AS WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE FURTHER WITH LOW LEVEL JET. WE MAY
STRUGGLE JUST A BIT BEHIND THIS CURRENT COMPLEX WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE...BUT PLENTY OF LIFT APPEARS TO COME IN BY
LATE EVENING AND BEYOND. CONTINUED WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OF 70+ PERCENT...AND A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

REALLY DIDN/T HAVE A LOT OF TIME TODAY TO LOOK MUCH BEYOND
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE MODEST SIDE TUESDAY
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL
HAVE AROUND. IF A GOOD CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN FORM AND MOVE
EAST...THE CWFA MAY CLEAR OUT...DESPITE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
LOW/MID CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY. ON THE OTHER SIDE...WE MAY
SEE SOMETHING LIKE TODAY WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS HANG AROUND AND
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE FOR 80 0VER A THIRD OF THE CWFA. DID
KEEP THE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST/SOUTH DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY SOLD WE WILL HAVE MUCH LINGERING
AROUND.

LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY AS
AN UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM LATE IN THE WEEK.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LOW LINGERS IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA
OCCASIONALLY SENDING A SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA. A RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD IN THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE
MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK...BUT HAVE A FEW MORE DIFFERENCES
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM
ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE
AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST ALLOWS FOR A
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE.

HYDROLOGY...RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXISTS TONIGHT FOR THE
CWFA. ISOLATED 1 TO 3 INCH RAINS LAST NIGHT GIVE A LITTLE MORE
CREDENCE TO SOME SIMILAR AMOUNTS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY ON A MORE WIDESPREAD
BASIS. MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION IS GOOD...THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE REALLY SEASONALLY NORMAL. THOUGH
THERE REMAIN AREAS THAT JUST REALLY CAN/T TAKE A LOT OF RAIN...A
DECENT PART OF THE CWFA COULD ABSORB A QUICK INCH OR SO FAIRLY
WELL...GIVEN WE ARE NOW IN THE PRIME OF GROWING SEASON AND WITH
MORE HIT/MISS RAIN COVERAGE THE LAST WEEK OR SO. DO EXPECT SOME 2
TO 3 INCH RAINS...AS THAT IS COMMON WITH ANY CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS
TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOODING HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES/WARMS ENOUGH THE CWFA WILL
PROBABLY SEE MORE DRY THAN WET ON A REGULAR BASIS OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. A FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
813 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
241200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
813 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS
AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

NEZ075-240530-
ADAMS-
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 1152 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
NEAR BLADEN...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HASTINGS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  AYR BY 1230 AM CDT

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

NEZ061-062-240600-
BUFFALO-HALL-
1223 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  BUFFALO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  SOUTHWESTERN HALL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 1219 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AMHERST TO KEARNEY
TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GIBBON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  AMHERST BY 1230 AM CDT
  GIBBON BY 1240 AM CDT
  SHELTON BY 100 AM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 278 AND 301.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.