Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. THUNDERSTORMS SET TO MOVE INTO THE KGRI AREA
BY MID EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. THOSE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR QUITE AWHILE AND LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TAKE OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A FRONT/WIND SHIFT MOVES THROUGH
AND SWEEPS THE STORMS SOUTH. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG ON WITH
STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT THOSE CLOUDS MAY BREAK SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008/

SHORT TERM...THE MAIN ISSUE IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RUMBLE AND ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA. THIS IS ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONE OF OUTFLOW FROM SD/NE BORDER STORMS. OVER THE GID CWFA...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH DECREASING CIN HAS DEVELOPING. INITIAL WIND SHIFT
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN/STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF MOST
OF THE CWFA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHEAR PARAMETER ARE AT THE
LOW END AT THIS POINT...BUT FORECAST TO IMPROVE INTO EARLY
EVENING. SPC JUST ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN CWFA...WITH THE SOUTHERN CWFA LIKELY IN THE ACT LATE IN
THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS SLIP SOUTH AND 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
KICKS IN. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALL AREAS...KEPT THE SEVERE
MENTION...AND THEN TAPERED THE RAIN/STORMS OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THESE PULSE TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. CLOUDS
MY BREAK UP LATE IN THE DAY PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S SEEM MOST REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LIES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY...AS THE CWA SITS UNDER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING...BETWEEN ONE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THIS DOES
NOT LAST LONG...AS THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN
NE/KS...BUT DOES NOT GET A CHANCE TO TRANSPORT MUCH WARM AIR OR
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL COME LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PASSES.  THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SD...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SECOND AREA
OF PRECIP DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND LEFT THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY DRY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...AS THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER AND CARRYING
PRECIP ON WELL INTO FRIDAY.  AGAIN DRY CONDITIONS WOULD BE
SHORTLIVED...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.  NOTHING SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT ABOUT THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING A SURFACE
LOW/FRONT THROUGH.  WITH THE QUICK TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS...THERE
IS LITTLE CHANCE TO PULL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH...SO
NOT EXPECTING HIGH QPF EVENTS.  KEPT POPS IN STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO BE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

CWA FINALLY GETS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A MORE
STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM.  CONFIDENCE LOW IN THIS SYSTEM...WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WHICH IS NOT TOTALLY UNUSUAL FOR DAY 7.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SWINGS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER EXPECTED.  MID/LATE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP AND MORE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ARE A
BIT LOWER IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.  SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A REBOUND...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072-073-071200-
VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-
HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-GOSPER-PHELPS-
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...NORTH OF A LINE FROM YORK...TO KEARNEY...TO ARAPAHOE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSTED UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEVERE...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...
AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ074>077-082>087-071200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-
FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YORK...TO HASTINGS...TO ARAPAHOE...
AND FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY MID EVENING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN 7 PM AND 2 AM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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