Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
650 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE DURING THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME...WITH SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN LIKELY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THEY CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT BY LATE MORNING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
TERMINAL AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SOME OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008/

DISCUSSION...ACTIVE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION THIS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.

FIRST ISSUE TO RESOLVE INVOLVES THE CURRENT MCS AND ITS
PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THE MCS IS
FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 45 KT LLJ TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 850MB THETA/E RIDGE AXIS...BUT THE JET IS
SHOWN TO WEAKEN BY 09Z TO 12Z. AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE MCS WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH STRONG 850MB THETA/E ADVECTION JUST NORTH
OF THE RETURNING WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE STORM PROPAGATION
MORE TO THE EAST...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A HOLDREGE TO HEBRON LINE.
EXPECT THIS WILL ALLOW THE MCS TO EXIT THE CWA BY NO LATER THAN
LATE MORNING.

THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD THEN LOOK DRY AS
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. NONETHELESS...MANY
QUESTIONS EXIST AS THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE MORNING ALTHOUGH ITS
PROGRESS MAY BE HALTED IF THE CURRENT MCS KICKS OUT A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO IMPEDE THE FRONTS RETURN NORTHWARD. WILL
GAMBLE AT THIS POINT THAT ANY OUTFLOW KICKED OUT BY THIS MCS WILL
BECOME DIFFUSE AND MIX OUT SUCH THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STILL
SLIDE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTION TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON BUT THEN SLIDE EAST INTO FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS AND ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ANY CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE CWA MAY LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF A SUPERCELL. WITH SIGTOR VALUES SHOWN TO EXCEED 3 DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WILL PLAY UP HWO FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAINLY THIS
EVENING INCLUDING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE VERY TRICKY ON MONDAY GIVEN ALL OF THE
POSSIBLE BOUNDARY SCENARIOS...BUT WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S NEAR ORD...TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THE MID EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS IT
APPEARS ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY EVOLVE FROM DISCRETE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE NOSE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LLJ
IS SHOWN TO BE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  SEVERE THREAT BY THIS
POINT WILL SHIFT TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALTHOUGH
LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.  EXPECT ONE OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD FADE BY THIS POINT...HEAVY
RAIN COULD PRODUCE SOME SERIOUS HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT THE DAY CREW WILL
NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS TIME FRAME FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL BE ANY LARGE
OUTFLOW PUSHING THE FRONT BACK SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO
NORTHEAST KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL PUSH THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY WEAK THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET STREAK BEING
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
SHIFTS INTO THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN RESPONSE TO A 40 KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A LARGE MCS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE EVENING AND SHIFT IT INTO THE SANDHILLS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THEORY THIS WOULD LEAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LEXINGTON TO ORD LINE BUT WILL LEAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN CASE THE LLJ
FORMS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

ALL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER WAVE BEGINS
TO CUT OFF AND DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL
LEAVE AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH AN 80 TO 120 KT UPPER
JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
WAVE...A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST NEAR THE
KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE TRIPLE POINT SHOWN TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PRODUCE HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THIS FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 60 KNOTS AND
EFFECTIVE SRH EXCEEDING 200 OVER A LARGE AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT
HAS ALL OF THE SIGNS FOR A TORNADIC OUTBREAK. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE TORNADIC OUTBREAK OF MAY 22 2004 AND WILL
BEGIN TO PLAY UP THE WORDING IN THE HWO. OBVIOUSLY THIS TIME FRAME
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
748 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     HAIL             SUPERIOR                40.02N 98.07W
06/02/2008  E0.75 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
756 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HAIL             3 SW SUPERIOR           39.99N 98.11W
06/02/2008  M1.25 INCH       JEWELL             KS   PUBLIC

&&

DOXEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
758 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     HAIL             13 NE MANKATO           39.92N 98.03W
06/02/2008  E2.75 INCH       JEWELL             KS   PUBLIC

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR WEBBER

&&

DOXEY

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