Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1012 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY...
12Z KGGW SOUNDING SHOWING THE AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE. SI WAS -6
AND AWIPS SOUNDING PLOT SHOWED -9 LI. INVERSION AT 500 MB EASILY
OVERCOME. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EXTENDS S FROM UPPER LOW CENTER IN S
SK INTO OUR MOST N ZONES THIS MORN WITH SURFACE LOW ON MT/ND
BORDER. RUC HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN 12Z NAM. OUTSIDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...SKIES ARE CLEAR THRU CWA THIS MORN...AND MOVEMENT
OF UPPER LOW WOULD INDICATE MOST OF ITS INFLUENCE TO REMAIN IN
CANADA. WILL REDUCE POPS...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS QUITE UNSTABLE YET
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LESS SO THAN THIS MORN...ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD EASILY FORM. DUE TO EXPECTED LESSER AND LIMITED
COVERAGE NOW...WILL KEEP SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WORDING WITH NE
THIRD OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. SIMONSEN

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A CONVERGENT
ZONE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA...WHICH DIVIDES MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST AND DRY
STABLE AIR TO THE WEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE PERSISTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...AND STEADILY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TO BEGIN THE DAY THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE QUICKLY. NAM...GFS...AND RUC COMPUTE CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AS LOW AS -7 BY 18Z
WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EAST OF A LINE THROUGH GLASGOW AND
FLOWING WELLS. WITH NO INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUICK TO
DEVELOP WITHOUT FULL SURFACE HEATING...WHICH WILL LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.

BY THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE...DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S BY MONDAY. AJZ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GFS IS SOMEWHAT
FASTER AND MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WARM AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE BUT
DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVES THAT THEY BRING ACROSS THE
RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME. COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WITH BASES 6-8K FEET TODAY FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
926 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2008

MTZ016>027-059>062-190430-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
926 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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