Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Glasgow, MT

000 
WWUS85 KGGW 272121
RFWGGW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
321 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2008

MTZ119-122-272230-
/O.CAN.KGGW.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-080828T0300Z/
PHILLIPS-VALLEY-DAWSON-MCCONE-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-WIBAUX-
321 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 119 AND 122...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES
...119...122.

CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG TODAY...WITH WINDS
LIGHTER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY
INTO THE EVENING SO THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

MTZ121-280300-
/O.CON.KGGW.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-080828T0300Z/
CHARLES M. RUSSELL REFUGE-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-
321 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 121 FOR VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AND STRONG WEST WIND...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES
...121.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

000 
WWUS85 KGGW 280248
RFWGGW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
848 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2008

MTZ121-280400-
/O.CAN.KGGW.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-080828T0300Z/
CHARLES M. RUSSELL REFUGE-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-
848 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES
...121.

HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT LEADING TO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

TFJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
847 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2008

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT DID DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE NE ZONES FOR THIS EVENING. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
VORT MAX EXTENDED SOUTH TO THE REGINA AREA AND CANADIAN RADARS
SHOWING THIS MOVING EAST.

OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
DETAILS. JAMBA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT
WELL INTO NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG JET AND SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MONTANA. SOME DECOUPLING EXPECTED THIS EVENING
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...SO LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9PM LOOKS ON
TRACK. STILL SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STREAMING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA IN THE UNSTABLE AIR...
SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET.

ANOTHER TROF EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY BUT WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING FOR
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE
TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVING TO THE EAST. EBERT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF THE
PATTERN WE HAVE HAD LATELY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING N OVER THE
WESTERN STATES BRINGS WARMING FOR FRI AND SAT. THE WARMTH PEAKS
UNDER THE THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH SAT AS THICKNESSES CLIMB TO
AROUND 580 DM. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK A LITTLE COOL FOR THE
PATTERN AND MOS TRENDING UPWARD ON HIGHS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PAST
FEW SHORT HOT SPELLS...SO WILL RAISE HIGHS.

ALSO SIMILAR TO PATTERN OF LATE...WE THEN SEE A MODERATELY STRONG...BUT
NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST...COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERY-TYPE PRECIP IS POST-FRONTAL UNTIL UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE MON...AND NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH. WE HAVE BEEN GOING WITH
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION OPPOSED TO THE MORE THREATENING ECMWF.
LATEST ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS. SIMONSEN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLATTENING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO SHALLOW RIDGING BY WEEK/S END AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROF
EXITING THE ALASKAN GULF. INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS TROF LOOKS TO PUSH TEMPS AOA NORMAL SATURDAY
BEFORE SAID TROF DRIVES A COLD FRONT EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. HUNG
ONTO SOME POPS MOSTLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY UNTIL
THE WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST ECMWF HAS SLOWED THIS TROF DOWN
NOTICEABLY FROM ITS PRIOR RUN WHEREAS THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES
STICK TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION. ECMWF IS THEREFORE VERY
LIBERAL WITH QPF TOTALS BY 00Z TUESDAY COMPARED TO MORE BELIEVABLE
VALUES VIA THE GFS FOCUSED MOSTLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA.

HEREAFTER THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GRADUALLY REBOUND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY MORE VIGOROUS PACIFIC WAVE
POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION WELL OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST WINDOW.
VAST MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT THIS SYSTEM
RATHER WELL...SO WOULD EXPECT STEADY GAINS IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT
AFTER THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM. MCZ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH A CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY. THE WIND WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH WIND OF 10 TO 15KT WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25KT IN THE AFTERNOON. AJZ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
THAN TODAY WITH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE
GOING WILDFIRES IN THESE RESPECTIVE AREAS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONES 119 AND 121. RAE/TFJ

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAYS HIGH OF 103 IN GLASGOW WAS NOT A RECORD HIGH FOR THE
DATE...BUT IT HAS ONLY BEEN THAT HOT SO LATE IN THE SEASON ONLY
ONE TIME SINCE 1929...THAT OCCURRING IN SEP 1 1983. SIMONSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ119-MTZ121.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
905 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2008

MTZ016-017-021>023-059>061-271200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
NORTHERN VALLEY-
905 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS EFFECT AS A RESULT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.