High Wind Warning 1, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
331 AM MDT MON MAR 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOMEWHAT BUSY WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR TODAY...UNFORTUNATELY THE WIND
WILL REMAIN IN THE LIMELIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PERFORMANCE
EXPECTED FROM THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT. TODAY/S WEATHER MAKER
REVOLVES AROUND A DEEPENING CLIPPER LOW...PRESENTLY 150 MILES
NORTH OF MEDICINE HAT...PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THIS LOW/S PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL RACE
ACROSS THE CWA BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SREF/RUC/NAM/GFS AND UKMET ALL AGREE IN
TRACKING A 45-50KT 850MB LLJ NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH HEALTHY 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES OF
8-9C/KM...WELL PHASED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE MIXING LAYER...AND AN
AXIS OF PRESSURE RISES FILTERING IN...FEEL PROS OUTWEIGH THE CONS
FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING.

OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER GIVEN DRY START TO THE MORNING
THUS FAR AND FAVORABLE FUELS IN SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE HOISTED A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES...PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

TONIGHT...GRADIENT WINDS SUBSIDE TO MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS BY SUNSET
ALL THE WHILE A REINFORCING COLD PUSH ARRIVES IN THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. OCCASIONAL WAVES ALOFT WILL INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH THIS
FRONT TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS HERE...BUT THE FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AS A RESULT MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. A PACIFIC WAVE THEN BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE NOT REACHED MUCH OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THIS. OVERALL MUCH OF THIS SYSTEM/S ENERGY NOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. MCZ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THE SYSTEM WILL BRING. THE GFS
IS THE WETTEST AND CANADIAN IS THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS AT THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS IS SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY IN THE EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THE GFS FOCUSES ITS BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
FOR MOST OF THE TIME.

THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE
TROUGH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MOST
OF THE TIME. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 55 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. GFF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 120 GIVEN FAVORABLE FUELS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT AND
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. MAXIMUM HUMIDITIES DID NOT RECOVER MUCH
AT ALL OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING...CONSEQUENTLY MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TODAY AREA WIDE WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 55 TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PREDOMINANT SPEEDS RESIDING IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. MCZ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-RICHLAND-
DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-EASTERN ROOSEVELT.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MTZ120.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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