Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 153 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF NORTH TEXAS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WHICH IS LOCATED FROM NEAR FREDERICK
OKLAHOMA...TO EAST OF BIG SPRING TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR CHILDRESS. 18Z
SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTH TEXAS BUT
INSTABILITY IS RAPIDLY INCREASING AND CIN IS WEAKENING IN THE
WATCH BOX AREA. EXPECT THE INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH A SQUALL LINE EXPECTED WITH IT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE SQUALL LINE. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
WITH THE SQUALL LINE...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SULPHUR...SABINE...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BRANCHES OF THE TRINITY
RIVER. PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT AND THE RAIN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. EVERYONE IS LIKELY TO RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SOME AREAS IN THE EASTERN HALF MAY RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
SWING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THEN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S IS IN STORE TOMORROW WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
KEEPING THE WIND CHILL IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL SUNDAY BUT A QUICK WARM UP IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.

82/JLD

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PLEASANT SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 70S. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES AROUND TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS COMING IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF SOLUTION REGARDING A WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
TIME TO RECOVER...BUT DRY LINE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
FORCING LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
DRY LINE MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...THE LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. FRONT
WILL STALL AND QUICKLY RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A MORE POWERFUL WEST COAST TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG
SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT DUE TO
MODEL TIMING DISCREPANCIES.   TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  63  46  73  53 /  90  60   5   5   5
WACO, TX              61  66  46  73  53 /  80  80   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             52  62  43  69  50 /  90  70   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            51  63  43  71  52 /  90  50   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          52  64  42  71  50 /  90  60   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            54  64  46  73  54 /  90  60   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           56  66  46  71  51 /  90  70   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         61  65  46  73  52 /  80  90  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  67  46  74  52 /  70  90   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

92/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
330 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF NORTH
TEXAS BEFORE MIDDAY FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF A CANTON TO TEMPLE LINE.
OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
425 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

TXZ100-032200-
YOUNG TX-
425 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN YOUNG COUNTY

AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF THROCKMORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 46 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE OLNEY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3336 9896 3340 9894 3340 9842 3333 9842
      3319 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 246DEG 40KT 3326 9919

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
426 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

TXZ091-032200-
MONTAGUE TX-
426 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 424 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWIE...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NOCONA...ST. JO AND
STONEBURG.

HAIL UP TO TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF MONTAGUE COUNTY BETWEEN 445 PM AND 520 PM.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3384 9794 3398 9763 3394 9758 3393 9758
      3391 9756 3391 9753 3388 9749 3366 9749
      3363 9797
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 267DEG 35KT 3368 9813

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