Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
333 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE PATTERN BECOMING EVIDENT AND PRETTY TYPICAL
OF EARLY SPRING-TIME WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH IN THE MID-WEEK...
WITH PERIODIC SEVERE WX POSSIBLE WITH EACH IF ENVIRONMENT AND
LIFT/SHEAR CAN COME TOGETHER.

.SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MON NIGHT/
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
SE 1/2 OF N TX AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100KT+ SUB-TROPICAL UPPER JET
MAX STREAMS ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX IN VICINITY OF OLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HRS...LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS OVER
SRN COUNTIES WHERE WHERE LIGHTER WINDS/RICHER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
NEAR OLD FRONT.

WILL THAT IN MIND...WILL BEST CHANCES OF RAIN E OF I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND SOME ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS FRONT
RETREATS RAPIDLY NWD BACK INTO CENTRAL OK/SRN AR BY TONIGHT. SOME STRONG
WAA WITH LLJ WILL GIVE BEST CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/SUN A.M NEAR IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY. AREA MOSTLY CAPPED SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME WDLY SCT WAA
TYPE ACTIVITY E OF I-35 CANT BE RULED OUT. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH SLY FETCH
OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE. MAIN SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OVER TOWARD NW TX/SW
KS/WRN OK BY MON MORNING DRY-LINE MOVING EWD AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NRN OK. MORE DISCREET ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WRN COUNTIES MONDAY...BEFORE
FRONT OVERTAKES DRY-LINE BY MON EVENING. HAVE TRENDED POPS A BIT MORE
WITH THIS TIMING...BUT EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS MONDAY/MON EVE IN
FAR E/SE COUNTIES/...AS FEATURES MOVE THROUGH UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM.../TUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND/
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS FOR THE SYSTEM COMING LATE
WED NIGHT AND THURS...AND AGAIN NEXT SAT/SUN...AS THEYVE SHOWN MORE
CONSISTENCY. KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH
QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN...TIMING...AND STORM TRACK...BUT
AGAIN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER VERY POSSIBLE WITH EACH SYSTEM WITH SPRING-
LIKE TEMPS. WELL KEEP THINGS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOLER TUESDAY...BEFORE RETURN FLOW RESUMES WED/WED NIGHT BRINGING
WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. WELL COOL OFF AGAIN FRIDAY
BEFORE THE TRANSITION ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. WELCOME
TO SPRING IN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  61  80  68  79 /  20  40  30  20  70
WACO, TX              70  64  79  68  78 /  30  20  30  20  70
PARIS, TX             62  60  76  66  75 /  30  50  40  20  70
DENTON, TX            63  61  80  67  78 /  20  40  20  20  70
MCKINNEY, TX          64  60  78  68  76 /  20  50  40  20  70
DALLAS, TX            67  64  79  68  77 /  20  40  30  20  70
TERRELL, TX           67  63  78  67  77 /  30  30  40  20  70
CORSICANA, TX         69  64  78  68  77 /  40  30  40  20  70
TEMPLE, TX            72  65  80  68  78 /  30  20  20  20  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-300800-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
304 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ARE PRODUCING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION. VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO
RISE BY MID MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY EVENING EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEW
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ISOLATED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS.