Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW WELL INTO NORTH TEXAS WITH THE
AXIS ORIENTED FROM SW KANSAS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALSO WELL DEFINED IN THE RUC 500 MB ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGES
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. TONIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES EAST. ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN SMALL AND DWINDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EXISTS ON FRIDAY BUT ATTM THE CHANCE IS TOO
SMALL TO MENTION AND KEPT 10 POPS. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE STRONG AND A RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGITS IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
RECORD LEVELS.

A WEAK FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH ANY FARTHER INTO
NORTH TEXAS THAN A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO EASTLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
SHIFT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. MODELS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
TONIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY WINDS. WILL KEEP 30 POPS
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AND THEN THE
FORECAST LOOKS DRY AFTER THAT.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART AND IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  78 100  81 /  30  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              78 100  78 100  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             74  97  74  99  77 /  30  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            76  99  77 100  78 /  30  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  76 101  77 /  30  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            80  98  80 101  82 /  30  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           77  98  76 100  77 /  30  30  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  76  98  77 /  30  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            76  98  75  99  75 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
525 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THROUGH MID EVENING...SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. ALSO...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE. AFTER MID EVENING...THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TO THE SOUTH OF I-20...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS FROM MIDNIGHT ON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEAR LAMPASAS AND KILLEEN. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THIS REGION. LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNSET.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

TXZ102-302115-
WISE TX-
348 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL WISE COUNTY

AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT...MOVING EAST AT
8 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRIDGEPORT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3328 9772 3320 9772 3320 9782 3325 9783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 269DEG 7KT 3322 9779

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
425 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

TXZ092-093-102-103-302200-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-WISE TX-DENTON TX-
425 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN COOKE COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY
  NORTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY
  WISE COUNTY

AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHEAST
OF WHITESBORO TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 16
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE AURORA...BOYD...
BRIDGEPORT... CALLISBURG...COLLINSVILLE...DECATUR...DENISON...
GAINESVILLE...KNOLLWOOD...KRUM...POTTSBORO...SANGER...WHITESBORO AND
EISENHOWER STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3387 9660 3384 9659 3383 9655 3378 9648
      3300 9757 3314 9792 3344 9750 3343 9748
      3345 9748 3388 9687 3386 9685 3388 9680
      3385 9680 3384 9670 3391 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 293DEG 14KT 3383 9678 3316 9774

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
507 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

TXZ116-302230-
PALO PINTO TX-
507 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 507 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF
MINERAL WELLS TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS TO 16 MILES
NORTHEAST OF RANGER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE MINERAL WELLS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3269 9833 3287 9808 3285 9805 3284 9806
      3274 9806 3264 9819 3258 9846 3265 9853
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 285DEG 9KT 3283 9802 3266 9826
          3262 9846

13

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