Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOW CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
FEW LINGERING WEAK SHOWERS IN THE METROPLEX...BUT THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE HOUR OR SO. WILL PREVAIL VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE TEMPO MVFR CIGS FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN FROM 13-16Z AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BKN CIGS.

91/DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/

AN UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR THE METROPLEX WEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD.
THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/

NORTH TEXAS REMAINS IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL
TO THE NORTH. CURRENTLY WE ARE LOCATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING...WITH ONE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND ANOTHER OVER FLORIDA. THIS KEEPS TEXAS IN THE
PATH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE NORTHERN
MEXICO RIDGE.

MCV WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES
TODAY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND BEING SHEARED OUT AS IT DOES SO. A
FEW STORMS HAVE ERUPTED PARTIALLY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ALONG THE COMPLEXS NORTHERN EDGE...FROM NEAR JACKSBORO TO NOCONA.
OTHERWISE THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE A HEALTHY CU FIELD
HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
EASTWARD MOVING MVC...CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS ANYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW AND SE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH 00Z.

LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE IN PLACE AGAIN TOMORROW
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE
QUALITY IS HIGHEST. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST. THE RESULT
WILL BE A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY
OF THE RED RIVER...AIDING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF AREAS NORTH OF I-20
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.  SH/13

&&

.CLIMATE...HEAVY DEW RESULTED IN ERRONEOUS PRECIPITATION AT WACO
REGIONAL AIRPORT ON JUNE 10. THERE WAS NO RAINFALL THAT DAY.

THE CORRECTED JUNE PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR WACO IS 0.07 INCHES. THE
TOTAL FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR IS 16.82 INCHES.

WEBPAGES HAVE BEEN AMENDED...AND ALL FUTURE DAILY CLIMATE REPORTS
(CLIACT) WILL REFLECT THIS ADJUSTMENT.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  97  77  95  77 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  93  72  94  74 /  20  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  96  77  96  77 /  20  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          73  96  76  94  76 /  20  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            78  96  79  96  78 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           75  94  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  94  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  93  74  94  74 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
316 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW WILL REACH STRONG TO SEVERE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNSET STRONG WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THIS TIME.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER AND
OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS NAMELY THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNSET FOR
ISOLATED...STRONG STORMS CONTAINING DOWNBURSTS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.

05/

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
548 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

TXZ162-252315-
LEON TX-
548 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL LEON COUNTY

AT 548 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES NORTH OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 13 MPH. OTHER ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LEON COUNTY.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER RURAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LEON
COUNTY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3128 9571 3120 9575 3116 9573 3114 9578
      3110 9577 3109 9600 3124 9601 3145 9572
      3133 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 246DEG 11KT 3123 9586

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
617 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

TXZ135-146-252345-
HENDERSON TX-NAVARRO TX-
617 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN NAVARRO COUNTY
  WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY

AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF GUN BARREL CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CANEY CITY...ENCHANTED
OAKS...GUN BARREL CITY...KERENS...TOOL AND TRINIDAD.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3226 9589 3202 9617 3214 9634 3236 9613
      3236 9604 3236 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 216DEG 8KT 3216 9618

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

TXZ122-260030-
VAN ZANDT TX-
656 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 656 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES EAST OF GUN BARREL CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PURTIS CREEK STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3236 9581 3236 9607 3251 9599 3241 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 216DEG 8KT 3238 9596

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
804 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

TXZ118-260130-
TARRANT TX-
804 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTY

AT 804 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT WORTH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FORT WORTH...HALTOM CITY...
HURST...NORTH RICHLAND HILLS...RICHLAND HILLS AND WATAUGA.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3290 9726 3280 9711 3269 9730 3278 9740
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 231DEG 11KT 3277 9729

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
813 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

TXZ104-260145-
COLLIN TX-
813 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COLLIN COUNTY

AT 813 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF MCKINNEY...MOVING NORTH AT 8
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CELINA AND PROSPER.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3324 9662 3322 9684 3324 9683 3340 9683
      3339 9680 3340 9679 3340 9656 3340 9655
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 191DEG 7KT 3334 9670

82/JLD