Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
754 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE TOR WATCH 323 IN PRODUCTS. TOR WATCH 322
AND 323 COMBINED NOW COVER THE AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
BRECKENRIDGE...TO DALLAS...TO CENTERVILLE.  SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008/

AVIATION...ACTIVE WX NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
MULTIPLE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE AREA NOW. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL HAVE TEMPO TSRA IN FROM 2Z TO 6Z.
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGLOMERATE AND BECOME MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCER LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AROUND 10Z. MVFR CONDS FOR CIGS BKN/OVC020 TO
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING.

91/DUNN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS AND QPF IN THE WEST IN ANTICIPATION OF
INCOMING SUPERCELLS NOW REACHING OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. THESE
STORMS ARE EXHIBITING ROTATION AND HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED EXTREMELY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IN CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...THEY DO APPEAR
TO BE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS THEY ENCOUNTER A LOWER CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
SH/13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008/

UPDATE...352 PM

QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 322 FOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

DISCUSSION...320 PM

CONVECTION POPPING UP IN PERMIAN BASIN AND THESE STORMS SHOULD
ADVECT TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TWO UPPER
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...ONE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE AND A SECOND ONE OVERNIGHT SO A DOUBLE ROUND OF
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE
ZONES THROUGH 7 AM. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT...LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN BUT BEST GUESS WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT TORNADO OR TWO NEAR/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND A LOCAL EFFECT OR BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY
ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY/INFLOW TO THE STORMS PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR A TORNADO.

PRECIP SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH DRIES N TX OUT. THEN WE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAY 7. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON LLVL WINDS...WITH GFS MORE
SOUTHWEST THAN ECMWF. HAVE TENDED TO THE GFS...AND WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED I HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS JUST A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE.  84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  73  54  79 /  60  10   0   0
WACO, TX              66  77  54  81 /  60  40  10   0
PARIS, TX             62  72  51  77 /  60  10   0   0
DENTON, TX            60  72  50  79 /  60  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          63  73  51  78 /  60  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            63  74  54  79 /  60  20   0   0
TERRELL, TX           65  74  54  79 /  60  20   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  75  55  78 /  60  40  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  77  55  79 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
330 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...ALL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
BRECKENRIDGE TO DENTON TO PARIS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
827 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N COMANCHE            31.99N  98.60W
05/14/2008  E60 MPH          COMANCHE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FROM COMANCHE CO. SHERIFFS OFFICE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
847 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXZ116-150215-
PALO PINTO TX-
847 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 847 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF RANGER...MOVING EAST AT 28
MPH. DIME SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THIS STORM.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GORDON.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
200 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3272 9812 3251 9813 3251 9830 3251 9831
      3253 9857 3270 9857 3271 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 272DEG 25KT 3262 9851

85/NH

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